CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCU Events Center, Boulder, CO

Colorado St

Efficiency #88

2025-26: 21-13 · 12-10 conf

Colorado

Efficiency #91

2025-26: 17-16 · 7-12 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

74.1

win 37%

Projected

77.9

win 63%

No line posted yet.

Model: COLO −3.8 · total 152.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Colorado 69.3, Colorado St 65.5 → 66.4 possessions

−4.1

Colorado offense vs Colorado St defense

+3.9

Colorado St offense vs Colorado defense

+3.9

Projected total

152.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Colorado offense vs Colorado St defense

+3.9

Colorado St offense vs Colorado defense

−3.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Colorado by 3.8

3.8

Colorado St side ◂▸ Colorado side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.9 against a projected 152.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Colorado.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Colorado is the faster team (70.2, #87 of 365) and Colorado St the slower (64.4, #345). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.0

model

Projected team totals

74.1 / 77.9

Colorado St / Colorado

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.5#358

Colorado St

69.3#102

Colorado

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageColorado St

Where Colorado St scores: shooting

Colorado St shoots an effective 57.5% (#12); Colorado allows 52.6% (#243). Expect about 55.5%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.0 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Colorado averages 70.2 possessions per 40, Colorado St 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageColorado

Where Colorado scores: ball control

Colorado turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#46); Colorado St forces turnovers on 15.5% of opponent possessions (#253). Expect about 14.7%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Colorado St, Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Colorado St at about 45.2% of its shots from three, Colorado about 38.4%.

ClashColorado

Style clash: 3-point volume

Colorado rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); Colorado St lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Colorado St has the ball

OffenseColorado allowsvs D1 avg

57.5% #12

52.6% #243

+6.0 pt/100

18.5% #296

15.3% #267

-0.0 pt/100

30.0% #198

29.6% #144

-0.4 pt/100

39.4% #69

36.6% #228

+0.4 pt/100

77.0% #33

—

+0.4 pt/100

Colorado St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.4 pts/100

Colorado has the ball

OffenseColorado St allowsvs D1 avg

52.9% #108

52.9% #263

+2.5 pt/100

14.6% #46

15.5% #253

+2.5 pt/100

29.0% #235

29.3% #123

-0.9 pt/100

36.7% #139

34.2% #155

+0.0 pt/100

76.1% #50

—

+0.3 pt/100

Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Colorado Stoffense vsColoradodefense

Share of shots by zone

Colorado St shoots

32.9

6.7

10.8

49.6

Colorado allows

38.1

8.5

16.7

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.1%#15	57.7%#136	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.0%#331	35.7%#81	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#45	43.6%#337	38.0%
Three	38.6%#9	36.3%#319	33.7%

Coloradooffense vsColorado Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Colorado shoots

40.5

8.7

16.1

34.7

Colorado St allows

34.8

7.2

15.5

42.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.1%#157	59.3%#203	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.5%#187	48.7%#347	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#48	40.6%#263	38.0%
Three	35.2%#104	34.2%#196	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Colorado St

−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#190 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#198

Def reb %

70.7%

#123

Turnover %

18.5%

#296

Forced TO %

15.5%

#253

FT rate

39.4%

#69

FT allowed

34.2%

#155

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Colorado

+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#164 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#235

Def reb %

70.4%

#144

Turnover %

14.6%

#46

Forced TO %

15.3%

#267

FT rate

36.7%

#139

FT allowed

36.6%

#228

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed−0.4

Colorado has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#164 of 365) to Colorado St’s −0.3 (#190).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Colorado St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Colorado St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
55	Jevin Muniz	G	Sr	6'6"	34-26	30.5	9.4	4.0	4.9	1.5	54.9%	35.9%	3.0	70.1%	19.8%
2	Brandon Rechsteiner	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	27.7	12.0	2.2	2.5	1.7	58.7%	40.0%	6.3	80.9%	26.0%
4	Jase Butler	G	So	6'4"	34-17	25.9	9.3	3.1	1.8	1.1	57.1%	41.1%	3.3	81.6%	20.1%
0	Carey Booth	F	Jr	6'10"	34-30	24.6	10.7	5.6	0.7	1.0	60.4%	40.7%	2.5	82.8%	23.1%
1	Josh Pascarelli	G	Jr	6'3"	27-25	26.5	10.2	2.8	1.4	0.8	60.1%	41.5%	5.4	87.0%	21.3%
35	Kyle Jorgensen	F	So	6'9"	28-27	25.5	11.5	4.3	2.2	1.4	61.5%	40.2%	3.6	80.0%	25.3%
11	Augustinas Kiudulas	F	Jr	6'8"	34-4	14.6	5.9	2.7	0.8	1.1	59.3%	41.2%	1.0	69.0%	24.3%
8	Jojo McIver	G	Fr	6'3"	33-0	12.4	2.7	1.8	1.0	0.9	45.1%	18.8%	1.0	74.3%	17.9%
21	Rashaan Mbemba	F	Jr	6'7"	21-6	17.5	8.1	3.7	0.9	1.4	62.4%	50.0%	0.5	72.0%	27.0%
23	Nikola Djapa	C	Jr	6'11"	18-1	9.8	2.5	1.9	0.7	1.0	68.5%	25.0%	0.2	50.0%	18.1%
3	Darnez Slater	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	7.1	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.2	41.7%	10.0%	0.5	90.9%	15.7%
5	Jon Mekonnen	F	Fr	6'8"	11-0	4.9	2.1	1.3	0.4	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	92.9%	33.7%
30	Charlie Dortch	F	So	6'7"	5-0	3.2	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	—	17.9%
41	Docker Tedeschi	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Colorado2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Barrington Hargress	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	32.5	14.7	2.2	4.5	1.2	61.0%	48.1%	3.3	83.5%	22.3%
2	Isaiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	30.6	16.9	2.9	3.0	1.4	57.1%	37.8%	4.6	82.1%	27.6%
8	Bangot Dak	F	Jr	7'0"	32-30	25.7	11.5	6.5	1.4	1.3	51.5%	25.9%	1.7	73.6%	26.4%
5	Josiah Sanders	G	Fr	6'5"	33-7	18.0	4.4	2.6	1.7	0.8	47.6%	12.5%	0.7	51.9%	17.0%
3	Alon Michaeli	F	Fr	6'9"	31-0	17.5	7.1	3.9	1.0	1.0	44.6%	29.0%	2.0	72.2%	27.3%
11	Jalin Holland	G	Fr	6'5"	31-10	17.5	4.9	2.7	0.8	1.0	44.1%	27.8%	1.7	54.2%	20.9%
15	Felix Kossaras	G	So	6'6"	28-17	16.4	4.6	1.5	0.4	0.5	60.8%	38.0%	1.8	75.0%	14.3%
50	Elijah Malone	C	Sr	6'10"	30-24	13.9	4.3	3.0	0.7	0.8	52.3%	28.6%	0.5	77.3%	19.1%
0	Ian Inman	G	Fr	6'6"	22-1	10.4	4.1	1.0	0.4	0.4	55.1%	36.7%	2.7	62.5%	22.4%
25	Fawaz Ifaola	C	Fr	7'0"	20-2	7.8	0.7	2.0	0.3	0.4	77.8%	—	0.0	0.0%	6.8%
42	Andrew Crawford	G	Fr	6'8"	9-0	5.3	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.3	65.0%	60.0%	0.6	50.0%	16.4%
41	Nick Randall	F	So	6'8"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	29.1%
1	Jon Mani	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Leonardo Van Elswyk	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Colorado St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Colorado St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
55	Jevin Muniz	G	Sr	6'6"	34-26	30.5	9.4	4.0	4.9	1.5	54.9%	35.9%	3.0	70.1%	19.8%
2	Brandon Rechsteiner	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	27.7	12.0	2.2	2.5	1.7	58.7%	40.0%	6.3	80.9%	26.0%
4	Jase Butler	G	So	6'4"	34-17	25.9	9.3	3.1	1.8	1.1	57.1%	41.1%	3.3	81.6%	20.1%
0	Carey Booth	F	Jr	6'10"	34-30	24.6	10.7	5.6	0.7	1.0	60.4%	40.7%	2.5	82.8%	23.1%
1	Josh Pascarelli	G	Jr	6'3"	27-25	26.5	10.2	2.8	1.4	0.8	60.1%	41.5%	5.4	87.0%	21.3%
35	Kyle Jorgensen	F	So	6'9"	28-27	25.5	11.5	4.3	2.2	1.4	61.5%	40.2%	3.6	80.0%	25.3%
11	Augustinas Kiudulas	F	Jr	6'8"	34-4	14.6	5.9	2.7	0.8	1.1	59.3%	41.2%	1.0	69.0%	24.3%
8	Jojo McIver	G	Fr	6'3"	33-0	12.4	2.7	1.8	1.0	0.9	45.1%	18.8%	1.0	74.3%	17.9%
21	Rashaan Mbemba	F	Jr	6'7"	21-6	17.5	8.1	3.7	0.9	1.4	62.4%	50.0%	0.5	72.0%	27.0%
23	Nikola Djapa	C	Jr	6'11"	18-1	9.8	2.5	1.9	0.7	1.0	68.5%	25.0%	0.2	50.0%	18.1%
3	Darnez Slater	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	7.1	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.2	41.7%	10.0%	0.5	90.9%	15.7%
5	Jon Mekonnen	F	Fr	6'8"	11-0	4.9	2.1	1.3	0.4	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	92.9%	33.7%
30	Charlie Dortch	F	So	6'7"	5-0	3.2	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	—	17.9%
41	Docker Tedeschi	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Colorado St

Against the spread

Season

18-15

Home

9-8

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-15-1

Home

9-7-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +3.1

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 18	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	L 64–69	−6.0	L−11.0	145.5	U133	95.5	103.0	67.0
Mar 12	San Diego StAdjEM #53	N	L 62–71	+6.5	L−2.5	142.0	U133	89.1	102.1	69.6
Mar 11	Fresno StAdjEM #169	N	W 67–63	−7.5	L−3.5	145.5	U130	106.4	100.1	63.0
Mar 7	Boise StAdjEM #63	H	L 67–78	+1.5	L−9.5	144.0	O145	109.4	127.3	61.3
Mar 4	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	W 82–74	+8.0	W+16.0	151.0	O156	112.9	101.9	72.6
Feb 28	San José StAdjEM #282	A	W 85–73	−8.0	W+4.0	145.5	O158	133.6	114.7	63.6
Feb 24	Fresno StAdjEM #169	H	W 74–70	−8.5	L−4.5	148.5	U144	111.0	105.0	66.7
Feb 21	San Diego StAdjEM #53	H	W 83–74	+2.5	W+11.5	140.0	O157	122.8	109.5	67.6
Feb 18	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	W 91–86	+2.5	W+7.5	148.0	O177	139.2	131.5	65.4
Feb 14	WyomingAdjEM #98	H	W 79–68	−3.5	W+7.5	138.5	O147	128.4	110.5	61.5

Colorado

Against the spread

Season

17-16

Home

11-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.1

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-16

Home

9-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.9

Over 5 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 1	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 86–90 OT	+9.0	W+5.0	162.0	O176	103.8	108.6	82.9
Mar 10	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	N	L 83–92	−1.0	L−10.0	165.0	O175	113.5	125.8	73.1
Mar 7	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	H	L 79–89	+13.5	W+3.5	156.0	O168	108.7	122.5	72.7
Mar 3	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 92–78	−1.0	W+13.0	148.5	O170	143.9	122.0	63.9
Feb 28	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	A	L 62–102	+19.0	L−21.0	138.5	O164	89.7	147.5	69.1
Feb 25	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 79–70	−6.0	W+3.0	163.0	U149	98.2	87.0	80.4
Feb 21	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	W 83–69	−3.5	W+10.5	162.5	U152	114.9	95.6	72.2
Feb 14	#22BYUAdjEM #26	A	L 86–90 OT	+15.5	W+11.5	162.0	O176	104.6	109.5	82.2
Feb 11	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	L 44–78	+13.5	L−20.5	155.5	U122	69.1	122.4	63.7
Feb 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 78–70	−3.5	W+4.5	158.0	U148	118.9	106.7	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Colorado StColorado

Efficiency

114.2

113.2

109.6

108.7

65.5

69.3

—

Shooting

57.5%

52.9%

57.1%

53.0%

38.6%

35.2%

77.0%

76.1%

39.4%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

14.6%

15.5%

15.3%

30.0%

29.0%

29.3%

29.6%

10.5%

8.4%

9.0%

9.2%

Style

49.1%

35.2%

35.6%

43.9%

11.1%

16.7%

62.9%

55.2%

30.9%

34.7%

Roster

2.73

1.94

6'5.6"

—

87.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Colorado St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Colorado St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Colorado

Returning minutes: 87.8%Returning production: 87.0%

Lost

Sebastian Rancik 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Leonardo Van Elswyk no D1 minutes last season
Jon Mani no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 6	2025-26	Colorado 86 – 91 Colorado St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.