CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceViejas Arena, San Diego, CA

UNLV

Efficiency #124

2025-26: 18-17 · 12-10 conf

San Diego St

Efficiency #53

2025-26: 22-11 · 16-7 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

71.3

win 22%

Projected

80.1

win 78%

No line posted yet.

Model: SDSU −8.8 · total 151.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: San Diego St 69.1, UNLV 69.9 → 70.7 possessions

+5.2

San Diego St offense vs UNLV defense

+1.4

UNLV offense vs San Diego St defense

−3.3

Projected total

151.4

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

San Diego St offense vs UNLV defense

+1.4

UNLV offense vs San Diego St defense

+3.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

San Diego St by 8.8

8.8

UNLV side ◂▸ San Diego St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.5 against a projected 151.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Diego St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UNLV is the faster team (70.5, #75 of 365) and San Diego St the slower (69.3, #129). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.4

model

Projected team totals

71.3 / 80.1

UNLV / San Diego St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.9#55

UNLV

69.1#113

San Diego St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashUNLV

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

UNLV (#49 in shot-blocking exposure) against San Diego St (#8 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 12.8%. Historically San Diego St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

AdvantageUNLV

Where UNLV struggles: ball control

UNLV turns it over on 17.1% of possessions (#209); San Diego St forces turnovers on 20.3% of opponent possessions (#19). Expect about 19.2%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSan Diego St

Where San Diego St scores: shooting

San Diego St shoots an effective 52.7% (#116); UNLV allows 52.3% (#231). Expect about 52.6%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSan Diego St

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

San Diego St (#4 in shot-blocking exposure) against UNLV (#33 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.3%. Historically UNLV's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

ClashUNLV

Style clash: paint scoring

UNLV scores 46.9% of its points in the paint; San Diego St protects the paint (35.4% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 41.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

UNLV has the ball

OffenseSan Diego St allowsvs D1 avg

53.6% #81

48.2% #41

-0.4 pt/100

17.1% #209

20.3% #19

-2.9 pt/100

30.2% #189

31.1% #208

+0.1 pt/100

40.7% #51

38.5% #271

+0.6 pt/100

67.7% #331

—

-0.4 pt/100

UNLV net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.0 pts/100

San Diego St has the ball

OffenseUNLV allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #116

52.3% #231

+1.9 pt/100

17.2% #222

17.4% #126

-0.8 pt/100

29.5% #222

32.0% #256

+0.1 pt/100

39.0% #81

44.9% #349

+1.0 pt/100

73.0% #166

—

+0.1 pt/100

San Diego St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UNLVoffense vsSan Diego Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

UNLV shoots

41.7

6.1

15.9

36.4

San Diego St allows

34.0

5.3

13.6

47.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.3%#111	52.3%#18	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	32.2%#23	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#58	29.6%#3	38.0%
Three	35.2%#102	33.6%#164	33.7%

San Diego Stoffense vsUNLVdefense

Share of shots by zone

San Diego St shoots

35.9

6.8

24.4

33.0

UNLV allows

40.9

7.0

15.9

36.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.3%#30	58.5%#165	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.6%#205	26.2%#2	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#125	42.7%#323	38.0%
Three	34.5%#144	35.2%#259	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UNLV

−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#244 of 365

Off reb %

30.2%

#189

Def reb %

68.0%

#256

Turnover %

17.1%

#209

Forced TO %

17.4%

#126

FT rate

40.7%

#51

FT allowed

44.9%

#349

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−2.5

San Diego St

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#106 of 365

Off reb %

29.5%

#222

Def reb %

68.9%

#208

Turnover %

17.2%

#222

Forced TO %

20.3%

#19

FT rate

39.0%

#81

FT allowed

38.5%

#271

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers+2.4

Foul shots drawn+1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.8

San Diego St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#106 of 365) to UNLV’s −1.2 (#244).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UNLV2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UNLV's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn	G	Jr	6'1"	35-35	34.2	20.7	3.1	2.5	2.5	59.5%	41.4%	7.0	83.8%	31.7%
2	Kimani Hamilton	F	Sr	6'8"	35-35	29.3	12.8	4.9	2.3	1.6	53.1%	34.3%	2.9	72.7%	24.8%
3	Howie Fleming Jr.	G	Sr	6'5"	32-27	29.1	9.0	6.3	3.7	2.0	50.0%	31.3%	2.6	80.2%	19.5%
6	Tyrin Jones	F	Fr	6'9"	32-15	27.0	11.9	5.0	1.4	1.1	59.8%	25.0%	0.3	48.8%	23.9%
12	Issac Williamson	G	Fr	6'0"	33-15	23.1	8.6	1.8	1.2	1.5	47.9%	33.3%	3.9	67.1%	24.3%
22	Walter Brown	F	Sr	6'5"	33-14	20.3	3.8	2.8	1.1	0.9	51.9%	34.7%	1.5	57.1%	12.7%
10	Jacob Bannarbie	F	So	6'9"	30-15	16.2	5.4	4.8	1.3	1.2	52.4%	25.0%	0.1	63.0%	21.1%
34	Emmanuel Stephen	C	So	7'0"	24-13	15.5	3.5	4.2	0.3	0.8	51.4%	0.0%	0.0	42.3%	15.9%
7	Al Green	G	Sr	6'3"	29-3	12.6	4.4	1.2	0.7	0.5	49.5%	31.1%	2.1	87.5%	20.6%
24	Naas Cunningham	F	Fr	6'7"	21-0	13.4	5.0	1.1	0.8	0.6	39.5%	23.4%	2.2	80.6%	24.2%
1	Ladji Dembele	F	Jr	6'8"	5-3	20.0	5.2	4.2	1.4	1.2	44.4%	28.6%	2.8	50.0%	18.2%
13	Jalen Cunningham	G	So	6'2"	6-0	3.3	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.0	30.0%	20.0%	0.8	—	14.3%
8	Mason Abittan	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
77	Myles Che	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
—	Xavier Brumfield	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

San Diego St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Miles Byrd	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	28.1	10.4	4.7	2.6	1.9	48.2%	30.8%	4.3	79.5%	24.3%
10	BJ Davis	G	Jr	6'2"	33-7	22.3	10.8	3.2	2.2	0.9	50.6%	37.4%	3.0	85.3%	26.9%
24	Taj DeGourville	G	So	6'5"	33-5	19.4	5.5	2.8	3.0	1.5	42.8%	34.5%	1.7	65.5%	22.0%
40	Miles Heide	F	Jr	6'9"	32-31	19.1	5.6	4.5	0.8	1.0	62.3%	28.6%	0.2	51.0%	16.9%
4	Sean Newman Jr.	G	Sr	6'1"	33-5	15.5	3.3	1.2	2.4	0.8	41.0%	28.1%	1.0	86.1%	15.7%
3	Elzie Harrington	G	Fr	6'5"	23-17	21.0	8.0	1.6	2.3	1.7	53.8%	43.6%	1.7	81.3%	23.6%
0	Magoon Gwath	F	So	7'0"	25-16	19.0	8.9	4.3	0.3	1.5	58.3%	43.5%	1.8	60.6%	27.0%
8	Tae Simmons	F	Fr	6'6"	32-3	14.3	5.8	3.4	0.3	0.4	65.7%	25.0%	0.3	63.1%	19.7%
5	Pharaoh Compton	F	So	6'7"	33-1	13.8	7.5	2.8	0.3	0.7	72.1%	0.0%	0.1	62.5%	25.1%
25	Jeremiah Oden	F	Sr	6'8"	30-15	13.8	4.6	2.3	0.4	0.5	51.4%	30.2%	1.8	69.7%	19.7%
33	Thokbor Majak	F	Fr	7'1"	7-0	4.3	0.3	1.9	0.0	0.4	16.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	17.8%
7	Cam Lawin	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	2.6	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	81.3%	50.0%	1.2	—	38.6%
9	Raymar Gonzales	G	Fr	6'3"	4-0	2.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	15.2%
6	Latrell Davis	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNLV2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UNLV's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn	G	Jr	6'1"	35-35	34.2	20.7	3.1	2.5	2.5	59.5%	41.4%	7.0	83.8%	31.7%
2	Kimani Hamilton	F	Sr	6'8"	35-35	29.3	12.8	4.9	2.3	1.6	53.1%	34.3%	2.9	72.7%	24.8%
3	Howie Fleming Jr.	G	Sr	6'5"	32-27	29.1	9.0	6.3	3.7	2.0	50.0%	31.3%	2.6	80.2%	19.5%
6	Tyrin Jones	F	Fr	6'9"	32-15	27.0	11.9	5.0	1.4	1.1	59.8%	25.0%	0.3	48.8%	23.9%
12	Issac Williamson	G	Fr	6'0"	33-15	23.1	8.6	1.8	1.2	1.5	47.9%	33.3%	3.9	67.1%	24.3%
22	Walter Brown	F	Sr	6'5"	33-14	20.3	3.8	2.8	1.1	0.9	51.9%	34.7%	1.5	57.1%	12.7%
10	Jacob Bannarbie	F	So	6'9"	30-15	16.2	5.4	4.8	1.3	1.2	52.4%	25.0%	0.1	63.0%	21.1%
34	Emmanuel Stephen	C	So	7'0"	24-13	15.5	3.5	4.2	0.3	0.8	51.4%	0.0%	0.0	42.3%	15.9%
7	Al Green	G	Sr	6'3"	29-3	12.6	4.4	1.2	0.7	0.5	49.5%	31.1%	2.1	87.5%	20.6%
24	Naas Cunningham	F	Fr	6'7"	21-0	13.4	5.0	1.1	0.8	0.6	39.5%	23.4%	2.2	80.6%	24.2%
1	Ladji Dembele	F	Jr	6'8"	5-3	20.0	5.2	4.2	1.4	1.2	44.4%	28.6%	2.8	50.0%	18.2%
13	Jalen Cunningham	G	So	6'2"	6-0	3.3	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.0	30.0%	20.0%	0.8	—	14.3%
8	Mason Abittan	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
77	Myles Che	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
—	Xavier Brumfield	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UNLV

Against the spread

Season

16-18

Home

8-7

Road

8-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +2.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-14

Home

11-4

Road

8-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.8

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	TulsaAdjEM #46	A	L 66–77	+5.0	L−6.0	161.5	U143	100.3	117.0	65.8
Mar 17	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	W 75–72	+1.0	W+4.0	152.5	U147	101.3	97.3	74.0
Mar 12	Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 60–80	+8.5	L−11.5	156.5	U140	86.0	114.6	69.8
Mar 11	WyomingAdjEM #98	N	W 73–70	−3.5	L−0.5	153.0	U143	111.3	106.7	65.6
Mar 6	San Diego StAdjEM #53	A	L 86–89	+9.0	W+6.0	153.5	O175	116.6	120.7	73.7
Mar 3	Utah StateAdjEM #24	H	W 92–65	+7.5	W+34.5	156.5	O157	130.9	92.5	70.3
Feb 28	NevadaAdjEM #71	H	W 85–83 OT	+1.0	W+3.0	151.5	O168	112.7	110.0	75.4
Feb 25	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	A	L 67–80	+7.5	L−5.5	150.5	U147	96.4	115.1	69.5
Feb 21	Air ForceAdjEM #360	A	W 91–66	−16.5	W+8.5	153.0	O157	132.0	95.7	69.0
Feb 18	Colorado StAdjEM #88	H	L 86–91	−2.5	L−7.5	148.0	O177	131.5	139.2	65.4

San Diego St

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

6-8-1

Road

6-4

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

7-8

Road

6-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.9

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 62–73	+2.5	L−8.5	146.0	U135	95.0	111.8	65.3
Mar 13	New MexicoAdjEM #42	N	W 64–62	−2.5	L−0.5	150.5	U126	96.8	93.7	66.1
Mar 12	Colorado StAdjEM #88	N	W 71–62	−6.5	W+2.5	142.0	U133	102.1	89.1	69.6
Mar 6	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	W 89–86	−9.0	L−6.0	153.5	O175	120.7	116.6	73.7
Mar 3	Boise StAdjEM #63	A	L 77–86	+1.0	L−8.0	145.0	O163	113.1	126.3	68.1
Feb 28	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 76–81	+1.5	L−3.5	149.0	O157	108.1	115.3	70.3
Feb 25	Utah StateAdjEM #24	H	W 89–72	+1.0	W+18.0	147.0	O161	128.0	103.5	69.5
Feb 21	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	L 74–83	−2.5	L−11.5	140.0	O157	109.5	122.8	67.6
Feb 17	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	H	L 63–73	−8.0	L−18.0	139.0	U136	88.4	102.5	71.2
Feb 14	NevadaAdjEM #71	H	W 71–57	−8.5	W+5.5	139.5	U128	113.2	90.9	62.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UNLVSan Diego St

Efficiency

111.3

110.1

108.8

101.0

69.9

69.1

—

Shooting

53.6%

52.7%

54.0%

53.2%

35.2%

34.5%

67.7%

73.0%

40.7%

39.0%

Ball control & glass

17.1%

17.2%

17.4%

20.3%

30.2%

29.5%

32.0%

31.1%

9.2%

9.7%

7.8%

6.2%

Style

36.4%

33.8%

46.9%

42.5%

13.8%

15.0%

51.3%

54.4%

29.1%

42.9%

Roster

2.76

2.55

6'5.4"

6'5.9"

—

85.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UNLV

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted UNLV's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

San Diego St

Returning minutes: 85.7%Returning production: 87.5%

Lost

Reese Dixon-Waters 29.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Latrell Davis no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Mar 6	2025-26	UNLV 86 – 89 San Diego St
Sat, Jan 24	2025-26	San Diego St 82 – 71 UNLV

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.