CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSkip Chappelle Court in Memorial Gymnasium, Orono, ME
Stony Brook
Efficiency #232
2025-26: 17-15 · 9-10 conf
@
Maine
Efficiency #335
2025-26: 8-24 · 6-11 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 1:00 PM ET
68.0
win 54%
Projected
66.7
win 46%
No line posted yet.
Model: STBK −1.3 · total 134.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Maine 66.6, Stony Brook 67.5 → 65.8 possessions
−5.5
Maine offense vs Stony Brook defense
−6.5
Stony Brook offense vs Maine defense
−1.5
Projected total
134.7
Axis starts at 125 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Maine offense vs Stony Brook defense
−6.5
Stony Brook offense vs Maine defense
+1.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Stony Brook by 1.3
1.3
Stony Brook side ◂▸ Maine side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −1.2 against −1.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Maine.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Stony Brook is the faster team (66.4, #277 of 365) and Maine the slower (64.9, #332). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
134.7
model
Projected team totals
68.0 / 66.7
Stony Brook / Maine
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.5#251
Stony Brook
66.6#315
Maine

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageMaine
Where Maine struggles: the offensive glass
Maine rebounds 19.7% of its own misses (#364); Stony Brook lets opponents grab 32.4% of their own misses (#274). Expect about 23.9%, 6.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Maine averages 64.9 possessions per 40, Stony Brook 66.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageStony Brook
Where Stony Brook struggles: ball control
Stony Brook turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#187); Maine forces turnovers on 19.4% of opponent possessions (#36). Expect about 18.5%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Maine's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Stony Brook at about 42.8% of its shots from three, Maine about 37.7%.
TurnoversMaine
Maine turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Maine's offense.
DefenseMaine
Maine's ball-hawking
Maine ranks #25 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.3% of Stony Brook's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Stony Brook has the ball
OffenseMaine allowsvs D1 avg
50.2% #227
50.6% #136
-1.3 pt/100
16.8% #187
19.4% #36
-2.1 pt/100
28.0% #267
34.3% #322
+0.1 pt/100
28.4% #339
33.9% #148
-0.5 pt/100
72.3% #197
—
-0.0 pt/100
Stony Brook net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.7 pts/100
Maine has the ball
OffenseStony Brook allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #263
50.7% #138
-1.8 pt/100
19.1% #325
17.1% #138
-1.9 pt/100
19.7% #364
32.4% #274
-4.0 pt/100
38.4% #93
35.4% #191
+0.2 pt/100
64.3% #363
—
-0.7 pt/100
Maine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Stony Brookoffense vsMainedefense
Share of shots by zone
Stony Brook shoots
Maine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.5%#32860.5%#25158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.4%#28147.1%#33439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)41.0%#7942.5%#31838.0%
Three34.8%#12829.3%#433.7%
Maineoffense vsStony Brookdefense
Share of shots by zone
Maine shoots
Stony Brook allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.2%#26356.1%#8958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.1%#10137.5%#12439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.9%#14836.0%#10838.0%
Three31.2%#31435.7%#29133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Stony Brook
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#295 of 365
Off reb %
28.0%
#267
Def reb %
67.6%
#274
Turnover %
16.8%
#187
Forced TO %
17.1%
#138
FT rate
28.4%
#339
FT allowed
35.4%
#191
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed0.0
Maine
−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#309 of 365
Off reb %
19.7%
#364
Def reb %
65.7%
#322
Turnover %
19.1%
#325
Forced TO %
19.4%
#36
FT rate
38.4%
#93
FT allowed
33.9%
#148
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.4
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers+1.8
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Stony Brook has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.8 (#295 of 365) to Maine’s −3.2 (#309).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stony Brook2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Erik PrattGSr6'5"30-3034.419.44.93.72.848.3%31.6%5.774.5%37.5%
2Rob Brown IIIGSr6'4"32-3031.110.83.11.31.049.3%35.9%6.086.4%21.5%
29Andrej ShoshkikjGFr6'2"32-2126.010.72.62.41.859.3%45.1%3.296.4%23.5%
12Richard GoodsFSo6'9"32-2725.07.75.92.11.449.3%35.2%2.851.3%21.8%
21Tomas ValentinyFFr6'6"32-419.14.83.50.90.547.5%32.1%2.463.6%16.9%
15Quin GormanFSo6'8"31-3018.63.93.60.90.650.0%30.4%1.565.6%13.8%
7Ethan SimmonGSr6'5"27-516.26.01.40.40.359.2%39.7%2.969.0%19.2%
5Jonah ButlerGFr6'6"30-012.54.31.90.60.552.4%32.3%2.178.6%20.7%
17Oleg KojenetsFSr7'0"32-210.32.93.00.40.739.3%—0.058.7%23.1%
4Toby OnyekonwuGSr6'2"20-210.82.50.80.80.841.0%25.9%1.472.7%19.2%
13Collin O'ConnorGSo6'3"8-826.37.52.51.81.560.0%28.6%1.880.0%16.5%
33Leon NaharFJr6'10"6-14.31.30.50.20.237.5%33.3%1.0100.0%22.1%
11Jake HarbatkinGFr6'3"3-04.00.70.70.70.033.3%0.0%0.3—13.6%
6Liam DagostinoGFr6'5"3-04.01.02.30.00.333.3%0.0%0.750.0%22.4%
10Andrew OkaforFFr6'8"3-03.70.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Stony BrookMaine
Efficiency
106.0
98.0
109.1
108.8
67.5
66.6
—
—
Shooting
50.2%
49.6%
48.5%
51.2%
34.8%
31.2%
72.3%
64.3%
28.4%
38.4%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
19.1%
17.1%
19.4%
28.0%
19.7%
32.4%
34.3%
10.2%
9.5%
11.7%
9.0%
Style
45.8%
37.0%
36.0%
45.1%
9.4%
13.6%
52.4%
54.4%
33.6%
32.9%
Roster
2.65
2.99
6'5.6"
6'5.3"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Stony Brook
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Maine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Maine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 82025-26Maine 60 – 71 Stony Brook

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.