CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceTucker Center, Tallahassee, FL
Dayton
Efficiency #62
2025-26: 25-12 · 14-7 conf
@
Florida St
Efficiency #74
2025-26: 18-15 · 11-9 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
73.5
win 39%
Projected
76.8
win 61%
No line posted yet.
Model: FSU −3.3 · total 150.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Florida St 70.5, Dayton 67.8 → 70.0 possessions
+3.7
Florida St offense vs Dayton defense
−1.2
Dayton offense vs Florida St defense
−0.5
Projected total
150.2
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Florida St offense vs Dayton defense
−1.2
Dayton offense vs Florida St defense
+0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Florida St by 3.3
3.3
Dayton side ◂▸ Florida St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Florida St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Florida St is the faster team (71.8, #27 of 365) and Dayton the slower (67.6, #216). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.2
model
Projected team totals
73.5 / 76.8
Dayton / Florida St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.8#222
Dayton
70.5#26
Florida St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageFlorida St
Where Florida St struggles: ball control
Florida St turns it over on 15.2% of possessions (#83); Dayton forces turnovers on 21.0% of opponent possessions (#11). Expect about 18.6%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageDayton
Where Dayton struggles: ball control
Dayton turns it over on 16.9% of possessions (#195); Florida St forces turnovers on 19.0% of opponent possessions (#52). Expect about 18.3%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseDayton
Dayton's ball-hawking
Dayton ranks #23 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.1% of Florida St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Dayton has the ball
OffenseFlorida St allowsvs D1 avg
51.6% #168
52.2% #226
+0.9 pt/100
16.9% #195
19.0% #52
-1.8 pt/100
26.9% #298
34.1% #319
-0.4 pt/100
46.2% #2
32.7% #122
+0.5 pt/100
75.4% #71
—
+0.3 pt/100
Dayton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
Florida St has the ball
OffenseDayton allowsvs D1 avg
52.3% #132
51.0% #164
+0.7 pt/100
15.2% #83
21.0% #11
-2.2 pt/100
30.8% #170
28.8% #94
-0.3 pt/100
34.7% #191
35.5% #194
+0.0 pt/100
71.3% #231
—
-0.1 pt/100
Florida St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersDaytonoffense vsFlorida Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Dayton shoots
42.8
6.3
9.8
41.1
Florida St allows
32.9
5.7
15.5
45.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.8%#122 | 60.2%#236 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 27.4%#360 | 38.8%#154 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#326 | 38.8%#194 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.9%#182 | 34.6%#228 | 33.7% |
Florida Stoffense vsDaytondefense
Share of shots by zone
Florida St shoots
35.5
6.0
8.4
50.1
Dayton allows
37.3
9.9
12.5
40.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.5%#109 | 57.9%#143 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.1%#20 | 34.8%#54 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.7%#241 | 37.1%#134 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.1%#226 | 35.4%#270 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersDayton
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#19 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#298
Def reb %
71.2%
#94
Turnover %
16.9%
#195
Forced TO %
21.0%
#11
FT rate
46.2%
#2
FT allowed
35.5%
#194
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+2.9
Foul shots drawn+2.9
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Florida St
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#89 of 365
Off reb %
30.8%
#170
Def reb %
65.9%
#319
Turnover %
15.2%
#83
Forced TO %
19.0%
#52
FT rate
34.7%
#191
FT allowed
32.7%
#122
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Dayton has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#19 of 365) to Florida St’s +2.2 (#89).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Dayton2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Javon Bennett | G | Sr | 5'10" | 37-37 | 34.5 | 15.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 49.0% | 34.7% | 7.0 | 89.8% | 27.3% | |
| 7 | Keonte Jones | G | Sr | 6'6" | 37-37 | 30.2 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 53.9% | 31.7% | 1.1 | 63.1% | 16.1% | |
| 29 | Amael L'Etang | F | So | 7'1" | 33-31 | 25.5 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 55.7% | 36.1% | 2.9 | 76.5% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Jordan Derkack | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-14 | 24.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 40.9% | 27.6% | 1.8 | 72.2% | 24.8% | |
| 10 | Bryce Heard | G | So | 6'6" | 36-6 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.9% | 36.6% | 2.0 | 79.1% | 20.5% | |
| 3 | Jaiun Simon | F | So | 6'6" | 36-16 | 18.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.7% | 40.0% | 1.0 | 80.5% | 17.7% | |
| 24 | Jacob Conner | F | Sr | 6'10" | 36-8 | 17.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 29.7% | 1.8 | 63.0% | 12.8% | |
| 1 | Malcolm Thomas | F | Fr | 6'8" | 26-0 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 54.8% | 33.3% | 0.7 | 56.8% | 29.2% | |
| 22 | Damon Friery | F | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 44.4% | 35.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 22.5% | |
| 50 | Sean Pouedet | G | Fr | 6'2" | 14-0 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 38.9% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 12.9% | |
| 11 | Evan Dickey | G | Jr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 14.6% | |
| 33 | Makai Grant | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 33.9% | |
| 25 | Will Maxwell | G | Jr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jaron McKie | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Florida St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kam Taylorat UNC Asheville | G | Jr | 6'7" | 32-30 | 34.7 | 18.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 49.6% | 28.1% | 4.3 | 70.1% | 34.2% | |
| 2 | Anthony Robinson IIat Missouri | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-19 | 27.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 48.3% | 31.4% | 3.2 | 67.0% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Sebastian Rancikat Colorado | F | Jr | 6'11" | 29-26 | 28.0 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 48.0% | 33.1% | 4.1 | 86.0% | 25.8% | |
| 31 | Cooper Schwiegerat Wake Forest | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-11 | 20.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 34.3% | 1.0 | 73.7% | 14.8% | |
| 19 | AJ Swinton | F | Jr | 6'6" | 26-1 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 53.6% | 32.8% | 2.2 | 56.5% | 16.6% | |
| 1 | Shon Abaevat Cincinnati | F | So | 6'8" | 24-12 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 41.9% | 25.7% | 4.2 | 64.9% | 30.6% | |
| 15 | Jalen Crawford | G | Jr | 6'0" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 53.4% | |
| 7 | Jasen Lopez | G | So | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 00 | Amare Robinson | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Brandon Bass Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Collin Paul | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Elise Assui | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | JD Jones | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Marcis Ponder | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Martay Barnes | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Shon Abaev (from Cincinnati), Sebastian Rancik (from Colorado), Anthony Robinson II (from Missouri), Cooper Schwieger (from Wake Forest), Kam Taylor (from UNC Asheville)
Dayton2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Javon Bennett | G | Sr | 5'10" | 37-37 | 34.5 | 15.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 49.0% | 34.7% | 7.0 | 89.8% | 27.3% | |
| 7 | Keonte Jones | G | Sr | 6'6" | 37-37 | 30.2 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 53.9% | 31.7% | 1.1 | 63.1% | 16.1% | |
| 29 | Amael L'Etang | F | So | 7'1" | 33-31 | 25.5 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 55.7% | 36.1% | 2.9 | 76.5% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Jordan Derkack | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-14 | 24.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 40.9% | 27.6% | 1.8 | 72.2% | 24.8% | |
| 10 | Bryce Heard | G | So | 6'6" | 36-6 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 51.9% | 36.6% | 2.0 | 79.1% | 20.5% | |
| 3 | Jaiun Simon | F | So | 6'6" | 36-16 | 18.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.7% | 40.0% | 1.0 | 80.5% | 17.7% | |
| 24 | Jacob Conner | F | Sr | 6'10" | 36-8 | 17.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 29.7% | 1.8 | 63.0% | 12.8% | |
| 1 | Malcolm Thomas | F | Fr | 6'8" | 26-0 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 54.8% | 33.3% | 0.7 | 56.8% | 29.2% | |
| 22 | Damon Friery | F | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 44.4% | 35.3% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 22.5% | |
| 50 | Sean Pouedet | G | Fr | 6'2" | 14-0 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 38.9% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 12.9% | |
| 11 | Evan Dickey | G | Jr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 14.6% | |
| 33 | Makai Grant | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 33.9% | |
| 25 | Will Maxwell | G | Jr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jaron McKie | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Dayton
Against the spread
Season
17-18-2
Home
8-10
Road
6-6-1
Last 10
5-3-2
avg cover +3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 2 pushesCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-24
Home
4-14
Road
6-7
Last 10
2-8
avg vs total −11.4
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | Illinois St | H | L 55–61 | −7.0 | L−13.0 | 140.0 | U116 | 87.6 | 97.2 | 62.8 |
| Mar 21 | UNC Wilmington | A | W 80–61 | −3.5 | W+15.5 | 138.5 | O141 | 125.8 | 95.9 | 63.6 |
| Mar 18 | Bradley | A | W 80–66 | −2.5 | W+11.5 | 141.0 | O146 | 133.9 | 110.4 | 59.8 |
| Mar 15 | VCU | N | L 62–70 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 138.5 | U132 | 96.0 | 108.4 | 64.6 |
| Mar 14 | Saint Louis | N | W 70–69 | +5.0 | W+6.0 | 145.5 | U139 | 102.3 | 100.8 | 68.4 |
| Mar 13 | St Bonaventure | N | W 68–63 | −5.0 | P0.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 103.3 | 95.7 | 65.8 |
| Mar 6 | VCU | H | L 62–68 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 147.0 | U130 | 102.2 | 112.1 | 60.6 |
| Mar 3 | Richmond | A | W 65–60 | −5.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U125 | 105.1 | 97.0 | 61.8 |
| Feb 27 | G Washington | A | W 68–66 | +2.5 | W+4.5 | 152.0 | U134 | 101.7 | 98.7 | 66.9 |
| Feb 24 | #23Saint Louis | H | W 77–62 | +3.5 | W+18.5 | 157.5 | U139 | 110.9 | 89.3 | 69.4 |
Florida St
Against the spread
Season
18-14-1
Home
9-7-1
Road
7-4
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +6.7
Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-16
Home
8-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +1.0
Over 4 straightOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #1Duke | N | L 79–80 | +17.0 | W+16.0 | 150.5 | O159 | 117.5 | 119.0 | 67.2 |
| Mar 11 | California | N | W 95–89 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 155.0 | O184 | 136.3 | 127.7 | 69.7 |
| Mar 7 | SMU | H | W 91–78 | −1.0 | W+12.0 | 158.5 | O169 | 123.4 | 105.8 | 73.7 |
| Mar 4 | Pitt | A | W 75–74 | −1.5 | L−0.5 | 145.0 | O149 | 114.3 | 112.8 | 65.6 |
| Feb 28 | Georgia Tech | A | W 80–71 | −6.0 | W+3.0 | 159.5 | U151 | 123.7 | 109.8 | 64.7 |
| Feb 24 | Miami | H | L 73–83 | +2.0 | L−8.0 | 153.5 | O156 | 103.1 | 117.2 | 70.8 |
| Feb 21 | Clemson | A | W 70–65 | +8.5 | W+13.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 116.9 | 108.6 | 59.9 |
| Feb 17 | Boston College | H | W 80–72 | −12.0 | L−4.0 | 148.0 | O152 | 119.6 | 107.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 14 | Virginia Tech | A | W 92–69 | +4.0 | W+27.0 | 156.5 | O161 | 142.4 | 106.8 | 64.6 |
| Feb 10 | #15Virginia | H | L 58–61 | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 154.0 | U119 | 85.1 | 89.5 | 68.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeDaytonFlorida St
Efficiency
109.9
113.0
102.2
106.4
67.8
70.5
—
—
Shooting
51.6%
52.3%
52.1%
55.1%
33.9%
33.1%
75.4%
71.3%
46.2%
34.7%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
15.2%
21.0%
19.0%
26.9%
30.8%
28.8%
34.1%
9.9%
9.4%
11.4%
12.8%
Style
41.4%
50.6%
41.6%
39.3%
14.1%
12.4%
59.1%
52.5%
27.4%
34.4%
Roster
3.13
3.28
6'5.6"
6'7.4"
85.2%
6.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputDayton
Returning minutes: 85.2%Returning production: 82.2%
Lost
- De'Shayne Montgomery 29.8 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Added
- Jaron McKie no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Florida St
Returning minutes: 6.3%Returning production: 4.9%
Lost
- Lajae Jones 29.5 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Robert McCray V 28.9 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chauncey Wiggins 27.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Martin Somerville 26.0 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kobe MaGee 19.8 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Thomas Bassong 19.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
- Kam Taylor from UNC Asheville · 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg last season
- Anthony Robinson II from Missouri · 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Sebastian Rancik from Colorado · 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Cooper Schwieger from Wake Forest · 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
- Shon Abaev from Cincinnati · 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
- Elise Assui no D1 minutes last season
Returns 6% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Dec 16 | 2025-26 | Florida St 69 – 97 Dayton |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.