CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceGlobal Credit Union Arena, Phoenix, AZ
Santa Clara
Efficiency #33
2025-26: 26-9 · 17-4 conf
@
Grand Canyon
Efficiency #65
2025-26: 20-12 · 13-8 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 8:00 PM ET
75.1
win 47%
Projected
76.0
win 53%
No line posted yet.
Model: GCU −1.0 · total 151.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Grand Canyon 68.8, Santa Clara 69.5 → 69.9 possessions
+3.5
Grand Canyon offense vs Santa Clara defense
−1.8
Santa Clara offense vs Grand Canyon defense
+1.3
Projected total
151.1
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Grand Canyon offense vs Santa Clara defense
−1.8
Santa Clara offense vs Grand Canyon defense
−1.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Grand Canyon by 1.0
1.0
Santa Clara side ◂▸ Grand Canyon side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.2 against a projected 151.1, and the margin steps add to +0.9 against +1.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Grand Canyon.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Santa Clara is the faster team (69.5, #113 of 365) and Grand Canyon the slower (69.0, #150). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.1
model
Projected team totals
75.1 / 76.0
Santa Clara / Grand Canyon
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#84
Santa Clara
68.8#139
Grand Canyon
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageGrand Canyon
Where Grand Canyon struggles: ball control
Grand Canyon turns it over on 17.6% of possessions (#246); Santa Clara forces turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions (#25). Expect about 19.3%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSanta Clara
Santa Clara's ball-hawking
Santa Clara ranks #17 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Grand Canyon's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashSanta Clara
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Santa Clara (#20 in offensive rebounding) against Grand Canyon (#12 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.1%. Historically Santa Clara's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
ClashSanta Clara
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Santa Clara (#42 in 2-point shooting) against Grand Canyon (#32 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 51.9%. Historically Santa Clara's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
ClashSanta Clara
Strength vs strength: eFG%
Santa Clara (#53 in eFG%) against Grand Canyon (#28 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 51.2%. Historically Santa Clara's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).
Santa Clara has the ball
OffenseGrand Canyon allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #53
47.4% #28
-0.2 pt/100
15.4% #99
17.3% #129
+0.5 pt/100
36.4% #20
25.3% #12
+1.1 pt/100
25.5% #363
39.0% #285
-0.3 pt/100
74.4% #106
—
+0.2 pt/100
Santa Clara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.3 pts/100
Grand Canyon has the ball
OffenseSanta Clara allowsvs D1 avg
51.7% #162
52.0% #213
+0.9 pt/100
17.6% #246
19.9% #25
-3.1 pt/100
31.3% #150
32.1% #262
+0.9 pt/100
39.5% #67
38.2% #264
+0.5 pt/100
75.3% #72
—
+0.3 pt/100
Grand Canyon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSanta Claraoffense vsGrand Canyondefense
Share of shots by zone
Santa Clara shoots
35.1
10.4
10.2
44.2
Grand Canyon allows
36.3
5.9
19.8
38.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.3%#84 | 51.6%#12 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.2%#37 | 34.4%#50 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.1%#24 | 42.6%#320 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.9%#125 | 31.9%#60 | 33.7% |
Grand Canyonoffense vsSanta Claradefense
Share of shots by zone
Grand Canyon shoots
41.1
4.2
16.2
38.5
Santa Clara allows
43.0
5.2
13.7
38.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#104 | 61.4%#281 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.4%#345 | 38.4%#144 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.7%#240 | 32.9%#26 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.8%#286 | 33.1%#127 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSanta Clara
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#123 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#20
Def reb %
67.9%
#262
Turnover %
15.4%
#99
Forced TO %
19.9%
#25
FT rate
25.5%
#363
FT allowed
38.2%
#264
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Grand Canyon
+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#96 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#150
Def reb %
74.7%
#12
Turnover %
17.6%
#246
Forced TO %
17.3%
#129
FT rate
39.5%
#67
FT allowed
39.0%
#285
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+1.7
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−1.0
Grand Canyon has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#96 of 365) to Santa Clara’s +1.4 (#123).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Santa Clara2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Hammond | G | So | 6'4" | 34-34 | 30.3 | 15.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 54.9% | 39.3% | 4.0 | 78.7% | 28.7% | |
| 44 | Jake Ensminger | G | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 28.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 66.1% | 39.8% | 2.8 | 66.7% | 11.6% | |
| 0 | Brenton Knapper | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 21.5 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 45.6% | 27.4% | 3.4 | 79.2% | 23.4% | |
| 2 | Sash Gavalyugov | G | Fr | 6'3" | 35-2 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 51.6% | 35.8% | 5.3 | 72.0% | 28.4% | |
| 15 | Thierry Darlan | G | Jr | 6'8" | 35-1 | 17.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 50.3% | 33.9% | 3.4 | 88.6% | 22.0% | |
| 7 | KJ Cochran | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 51.4% | 27.1% | 2.5 | 65.2% | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Francis Chukwudebelu | C | Fr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 52.0% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 11.5% | |
| 50 | Brendan Yarusso | G | Sr | 6'1" | 8-0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 1.4 | 100.0% | 77.2% | |
| 51 | Juan Reyna | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Brad Longcor III | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Chris Tadjo | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Gehrig Normand | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 54 | Malachi Douyon | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Noah Badibanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Grand Canyon2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Nana Owusu-Anane | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 52.1% | 35.9% | 3.7 | 72.6% | 17.2% | |
| 2 | Makaih Williams | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-20 | 27.1 | 14.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 51.3% | 33.5% | 5.2 | 78.6% | 30.3% | |
| 5 | Brian Moore Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 29-28 | 27.6 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 54.0% | 40.8% | 1.7 | 69.7% | 20.7% | |
| 8 | Dusty Stromer | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-5 | 22.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 45.7% | 33.3% | 3.6 | 80.0% | 19.1% | |
| 17 | Efe Demirel | C | Fr | 7'1" | 32-28 | 22.5 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 63.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 20.0% | |
| 11 | Caleb Shaw | G | Jr | 6'6" | 21-11 | 20.9 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58.8% | 37.0% | 3.5 | 64.7% | 21.7% | |
| 32 | Wilhelm Breidenbach | F | Sr | 6'10" | 29-4 | 12.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 41.3% | 13.3% | 1.0 | 80.6% | 15.3% | |
| 14 | Dennis Evans | C | Fr | 7'2" | 24-0 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 15.8% | |
| 22 | Kaleb Smith | F | Jr | 6'10" | 21-0 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 0.9 | 77.8% | 17.6% | |
| 9 | Evan Boisdur | G | Fr | 6'1" | 13-0 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 0.9 | 75.0% | 21.2% | |
| 23 | Cole Pepe | G | Fr | 6'4" | 6-0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 17.1% | |
| 3 | Braylon Johnson | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Jack Sawyer | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Luke Shaw | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Santa Clara2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Hammond | G | So | 6'4" | 34-34 | 30.3 | 15.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 54.9% | 39.3% | 4.0 | 78.7% | 28.7% | |
| 44 | Jake Ensminger | G | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 28.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 66.1% | 39.8% | 2.8 | 66.7% | 11.6% | |
| 0 | Brenton Knapper | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 21.5 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 45.6% | 27.4% | 3.4 | 79.2% | 23.4% | |
| 2 | Sash Gavalyugov | G | Fr | 6'3" | 35-2 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 51.6% | 35.8% | 5.3 | 72.0% | 28.4% | |
| 15 | Thierry Darlan | G | Jr | 6'8" | 35-1 | 17.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 50.3% | 33.9% | 3.4 | 88.6% | 22.0% | |
| 7 | KJ Cochran | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 51.4% | 27.1% | 2.5 | 65.2% | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Francis Chukwudebelu | C | Fr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 52.0% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 11.5% | |
| 50 | Brendan Yarusso | G | Sr | 6'1" | 8-0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 1.4 | 100.0% | 77.2% | |
| 51 | Juan Reyna | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Brad Longcor III | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Chris Tadjo | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Gehrig Normand | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 54 | Malachi Douyon | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Noah Badibanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Santa Clara
Against the spread
Season
17-16-1
Home
9-5
Road
6-5
Last 10
3-7
avg cover +0.1
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-15
Home
8-6
Road
7-4
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +7.6
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #7Kentucky | N | L 84–89 OT | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 157.5 | O173 | 112.6 | 119.3 | 74.6 |
| Mar 10 | #12Gonzaga | N | L 68–79 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 156.5 | U147 | 112.7 | 130.9 | 60.4 |
| Mar 9 | #21Saint Mary's | N | W 76–71 | +4.5 | W+9.5 | 150.0 | U147 | 122.9 | 114.8 | 61.8 |
| Mar 8 | Pacific | N | W 76–68 | −9.5 | L−1.5 | 148.0 | U144 | 128.4 | 114.9 | 59.2 |
| Feb 28 | Oregon St | H | W 93–72 | −16.5 | W+4.5 | 153.0 | O165 | 135.8 | 105.2 | 68.5 |
| Feb 25 | Saint Mary's | A | L 67–86 | +5.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | U153 | 102.4 | 131.5 | 65.4 |
| Feb 21 | San Francisco | A | W 94–73 | −6.5 | W+14.5 | 159.0 | O167 | 125.9 | 97.8 | 74.7 |
| Feb 14 | #12Gonzaga | H | L 86–94 | +5.0 | L−3.0 | 158.5 | O180 | 112.6 | 123.1 | 76.4 |
| Feb 11 | Seattle U | H | W 84–72 | −12.5 | L−0.5 | 147.0 | O156 | 122.8 | 105.2 | 68.4 |
| Feb 7 | Washington St | A | W 96–92 | −8.5 | L−4.5 | 160.5 | O188 | 135.5 | 129.8 | 70.9 |
Grand Canyon
Against the spread
Season
17-15
Home
9-8
Road
7-4
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +1.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
7-10
Road
5-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +3.1
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Nevada | N | L 80–84 | −3.5 | L−7.5 | 137.5 | O164 | 113.6 | 119.3 | 70.4 |
| Mar 7 | Fresno St | H | W 85–60 | −12.5 | W+12.5 | 150.0 | U145 | 117.0 | 82.6 | 72.7 |
| Mar 3 | Air Force | A | W 86–60 | −19.0 | W+7.0 | 143.0 | O146 | 125.3 | 87.4 | 68.7 |
| Feb 28 | Utah State | A | L 69–74 | +9.5 | W+4.5 | 148.0 | U143 | 108.5 | 116.4 | 63.6 |
| Feb 25 | UNLV | H | W 80–67 | −7.5 | W+5.5 | 150.5 | U147 | 115.1 | 96.4 | 69.5 |
| Feb 21 | Wyoming | H | L 65–70 | −8.5 | L−13.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 96.3 | 103.7 | 67.5 |
| Feb 17 | San Diego St | A | W 73–63 | +8.0 | W+18.0 | 139.0 | U136 | 102.5 | 88.4 | 71.2 |
| Feb 14 | San José St | A | W 94–79 | −11.5 | W+3.5 | 139.0 | O173 | 144.7 | 121.6 | 65.0 |
| Feb 11 | New Mexico | H | L 64–70 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 149.0 | U134 | 93.4 | 102.1 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | UNLV | A | L 78–80 | −3.5 | L−5.5 | 149.0 | O158 | 108.6 | 111.4 | 71.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSanta ClaraGrand Canyon
Efficiency
117.3
109.0
105.4
101.5
69.5
68.8
—
—
Shooting
54.4%
51.7%
56.1%
54.2%
34.9%
31.8%
74.4%
75.3%
25.5%
39.5%
Ball control & glass
15.4%
17.6%
19.9%
17.3%
36.4%
31.3%
32.1%
25.3%
9.2%
9.3%
9.0%
7.9%
Style
45.0%
38.9%
43.7%
43.2%
15.2%
13.9%
55.0%
49.6%
35.7%
29.1%
Roster
2.38
3.03
6'5.1"
6'6.7"
65.0%
84.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSanta Clara
Returning minutes: 65.0%Returning production: 55.6%
Lost
- Elijah Mahi 30.4 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Allen Graves 22.6 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bukky Oboye 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
Added
- Brad Longcor III no D1 minutes last season
- Malachi Douyon no D1 minutes last season
- Noah Badibanga no D1 minutes last season
- Chris Tadjo no D1 minutes last season
- Gehrig Normand no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Grand Canyon
Returning minutes: 84.3%Returning production: 79.1%
Lost
- Jaden Henley 31.5 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Luke Shaw no D1 minutes last season
- Jack Sawyer no D1 minutes last season
- Braylon Johnson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.