CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameb1Bank Fant Coliseum, Monroe, LA
Georgia St
Efficiency #310
2025-26: 10-22 · 7-12 conf
@
UL Monroe
Efficiency #351
2025-26: 4-28 · 1-18 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 3:00 PM ET
76.0
win 51%
Projected
75.6
win 49%
No line posted yet.
Model: GAST −0.4 · total 151.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UL Monroe 70.2, Georgia St 68.7 → 70.5 possessions
+4.8
UL Monroe offense vs Georgia St defense
−2.9
Georgia St offense vs UL Monroe defense
+1.5
Projected total
151.6
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UL Monroe offense vs Georgia St defense
−2.9
Georgia St offense vs UL Monroe defense
−1.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Georgia St by 0.4
0.4
Georgia St side ◂▸ UL Monroe side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −0.3 against −0.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UL Monroe.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UL Monroe is the faster team (70.7, #65 of 365) and Georgia St the slower (68.8, #161). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.6
model
Projected team totals
76.0 / 75.6
Georgia St / UL Monroe
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#146
Georgia St
70.2#37
UL Monroe
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUL Monroe
Where UL Monroe struggles: shooting
UL Monroe shoots an effective 47.8% (#316); Georgia St allows 50.6% (#135). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Georgia St, UL Monroe's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Georgia St at about 43.7% of its shots from three, UL Monroe about 41.1%.
AdvantageGeorgia St
Where Georgia St struggles: shooting
Georgia St shoots an effective 44.2% (#362); UL Monroe allows 57.1% (#358). Expect about 50.2%, 1.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
Georgia St has the ball
OffenseUL Monroe allowsvs D1 avg
44.2% #362
57.1% #358
-1.6 pt/100
15.9% #133
15.7% #236
+1.4 pt/100
27.7% #278
35.4% #345
+0.3 pt/100
37.2% #124
27.7% #32
-0.4 pt/100
78.6% #11
—
+0.5 pt/100
Georgia St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.3 pts/100
UL Monroe has the ball
OffenseGeorgia St allowsvs D1 avg
47.8% #316
50.6% #135
-3.4 pt/100
16.9% #199
16.4% #197
+0.2 pt/100
25.1% #338
33.6% #312
-1.3 pt/100
38.8% #85
34.9% #175
+0.2 pt/100
72.7% #178
—
+0.0 pt/100
UL Monroe net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersGeorgia Stoffense vsUL Monroedefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia St shoots
29.5
5.8
23.8
40.9
UL Monroe allows
39.5
5.4
13.1
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.3%#358 | 65.0%#351 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 34.4%#296 | 35.6%#74 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.2%#284 | 46.1%#356 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.6%#329 | 36.9%#343 | 33.7% |
UL Monroeoffense vsGeorgia Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
UL Monroe shoots
39.9
6.0
13.6
40.5
Georgia St allows
40.0
5.2
15.9
38.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.5%#313 | 57.4%#127 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#312 | 37.9%#134 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.1%#287 | 38.1%#161 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.2%#270 | 33.1%#132 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersGeorgia St
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#222 of 365
Off reb %
27.7%
#278
Def reb %
66.4%
#312
Turnover %
15.9%
#133
Forced TO %
16.4%
#197
FT rate
37.2%
#124
FT allowed
34.9%
#175
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.1
UL Monroe
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#237 of 365
Off reb %
25.1%
#338
Def reb %
64.6%
#345
Turnover %
16.9%
#199
Forced TO %
15.7%
#236
FT rate
38.8%
#85
FT allowed
27.7%
#32
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.5
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.9
Georgia St has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.9 (#222 of 365) to UL Monroe’s −1.1 (#237).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Georgia St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Georgia St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Malachi Brown | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-31 | 31.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 48.7% | 36.5% | 5.2 | 79.3% | 25.9% | |
| 0 | Micah Tucker | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-28 | 31.5 | 13.5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 48.6% | 32.5% | 3.8 | 81.3% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Jelani Hamilton | G | So | 6'5" | 27-26 | 31.2 | 17.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 44.6% | 34.0% | 5.8 | 88.4% | 34.5% | |
| 12 | Anthony Enoh | F | Jr | 6'7" | 30-17 | 22.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 37.4% | 23.3% | 1.4 | 65.2% | 17.2% | |
| 6 | Joah Chappelle | F | So | 6'8" | 28-19 | 23.6 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 48.5% | 37.8% | 1.6 | 70.6% | 18.8% | |
| 20 | Ayouba Berthe | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-2 | 16.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 38.3% | 27.9% | 3.8 | 81.8% | 19.8% | |
| 4 | Trey Scott III | F | Fr | 6'11" | 26-3 | 20.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 47.1% | 28.1% | 2.5 | 66.7% | 17.0% | |
| 32 | Christian Beam | C | So | 7'1" | 26-15 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 47.2% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 14.4% | |
| 1 | Jakai Newton | G | So | 6'4" | 21-6 | 17.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 39.8% | 26.2% | 3.1 | 82.1% | 28.9% | |
| 2 | James Cooper | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-10 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 37.5% | — | 0.0 | 71.4% | 10.0% | |
| 55 | Chris Jones | G | Fr | 6'6" | 19-0 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.1 | 100.0% | 20.1% | |
| 8 | Isaiah Sherrard | F | Jr | 6'7" | 11-3 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 16.4% | |
| 9 | Kwame Tanic | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | — | 17.8% | |
| 21 | Clash Peters | F | So | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Emmanuel Koveos | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UL Monroe2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Krystian Lewis | G | So | 6'3" | 32-32 | 36.2 | 18.4 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 42.9% | 31.5% | 6.2 | 84.1% | 32.1% | |
| 21 | MJ Russell | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 35.7 | 15.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 31.3% | 5.2 | 69.9% | 27.3% | |
| 4 | Lavell Brodnex | G | Sr | 6'5" | 26-24 | 31.6 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 56.9% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 71.5% | 24.6% | |
| 5 | Renars Sondors | F | So | 6'9" | 28-25 | 28.5 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 53.7% | 34.4% | 4.6 | 68.3% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Alex Molofeev | G | Fr | 6'5" | 30-21 | 21.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 47.7% | 26.4% | 1.8 | 60.0% | 16.8% | |
| 0 | Dylan Diaz | G | Jr | 6'2" | 23-15 | 22.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 51.7% | 37.6% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 16.5% | |
| 2 | Micah Caster | G | So | 6'2" | 27-3 | 13.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 34.4% | 32.4% | 1.3 | 75.6% | 18.1% | |
| 11 | Wiggy Ball | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-0 | 9.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 28.6% | 0.2 | 70.0% | 5.9% | |
| 23 | Ayomide Bamisile | F | So | 6'7" | 22-6 | 13.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 50.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 50.0% | 12.9% | |
| 1 | Przemek Hartman | F | Fr | 6'9" | 25-2 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 46.7% | 19.0% | 0.8 | 38.9% | 20.1% | |
| 12 | Alex Huguet Carrasco | G | Fr | 6'7" | 16-0 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 46.4% | 26.7% | 0.9 | 33.3% | 16.7% | |
| 6 | Ajay Tew | G | Jr | 6'11" | 13-0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.8% | 20.0% | 0.4 | 80.0% | 38.7% | |
| 32 | Cam Campbell | G | So | 6'3" | 8-0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 13 | Brady Craig | F | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Brentay Noel | F | Jr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Georgia St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Georgia St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Malachi Brown | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-31 | 31.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 48.7% | 36.5% | 5.2 | 79.3% | 25.9% | |
| 0 | Micah Tucker | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-28 | 31.5 | 13.5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 48.6% | 32.5% | 3.8 | 81.3% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Jelani Hamilton | G | So | 6'5" | 27-26 | 31.2 | 17.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 44.6% | 34.0% | 5.8 | 88.4% | 34.5% | |
| 12 | Anthony Enoh | F | Jr | 6'7" | 30-17 | 22.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 37.4% | 23.3% | 1.4 | 65.2% | 17.2% | |
| 6 | Joah Chappelle | F | So | 6'8" | 28-19 | 23.6 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 48.5% | 37.8% | 1.6 | 70.6% | 18.8% | |
| 20 | Ayouba Berthe | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-2 | 16.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 38.3% | 27.9% | 3.8 | 81.8% | 19.8% | |
| 4 | Trey Scott III | F | Fr | 6'11" | 26-3 | 20.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 47.1% | 28.1% | 2.5 | 66.7% | 17.0% | |
| 32 | Christian Beam | C | So | 7'1" | 26-15 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 47.2% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 14.4% | |
| 1 | Jakai Newton | G | So | 6'4" | 21-6 | 17.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 39.8% | 26.2% | 3.1 | 82.1% | 28.9% | |
| 2 | James Cooper | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-10 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 37.5% | — | 0.0 | 71.4% | 10.0% | |
| 55 | Chris Jones | G | Fr | 6'6" | 19-0 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.1 | 100.0% | 20.1% | |
| 8 | Isaiah Sherrard | F | Jr | 6'7" | 11-3 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 16.4% | |
| 9 | Kwame Tanic | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | — | 17.8% | |
| 21 | Clash Peters | F | So | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Emmanuel Koveos | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Georgia St
Against the spread
Season
13-16-1
Home
5-7
Road
8-6-1
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.3
Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-16
Home
7-5
Road
6-9
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +1.0
Over 4 straightOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 | Louisiana | N | L 75–84 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 134.0 | O159 | 108.3 | 121.3 | 69.3 |
| Feb 27 | Old Dominion | H | L 73–81 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 149.5 | O154 | 99.1 | 109.9 | 73.7 |
| Feb 24 | Coastal | H | L 71–76 | +1.0 | L−4.0 | 141.0 | O147 | 105.9 | 113.3 | 67.1 |
| Feb 21 | James Madison | H | L 65–80 | +2.5 | L−12.5 | 142.5 | O145 | 97.0 | 119.4 | 67.0 |
| Feb 19 | GA Southern | H | W 66–64 | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 155.0 | U130 | 96.2 | 93.3 | 68.6 |
| Feb 14 | Old Dominion | A | L 55–78 | +4.0 | L−19.0 | 147.0 | U133 | 85.2 | 120.8 | 64.6 |
| Feb 12 | James Madison | A | L 79–81 OT | +6.0 | W+4.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 106.8 | 109.5 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | N Illinois | H | L 74–75 | −4.5 | L−5.5 | 142.0 | O149 | 103.4 | 104.8 | 71.6 |
| Feb 4 | Troy | H | L 63–74 | +5.5 | L−5.5 | 145.5 | U137 | 98.6 | 115.9 | 63.9 |
| Jan 31 | South Alabama | A | L 67–69 | +5.5 | W+3.5 | 139.5 | U136 | 111.5 | 114.9 | 60.1 |
UL Monroe
Against the spread
Season
17-12
Home
6-5
Road
9-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.5
Covered 2 straightCovered 7 of 10 as an underdogCovered 6 of 8 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
20-9
Home
7-4
Road
11-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +8.4
Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 5 of 8 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 | Old Dominion | N | L 80–87 | +10.5 | W+3.5 | 157.5 | O167 | 114.6 | 124.6 | 69.8 |
| Feb 27 | Troy | A | L 65–80 | +18.0 | W+3.0 | 153.5 | U145 | 104.3 | 128.4 | 62.3 |
| Feb 25 | South Alabama | A | L 54–89 | +14.5 | L−20.5 | 153.5 | U143 | 80.3 | 132.3 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Arkansas St | H | L 94–102 | +15.5 | W+7.5 | 164.0 | O196 | 120.9 | 131.2 | 77.8 |
| Feb 18 | Troy | H | L 76–77 | +17.0 | W+16.0 | 155.5 | U153 | 107.6 | 109.0 | 70.6 |
| Feb 14 | Texas St | A | L 84–95 | +14.0 | W+3.0 | 149.0 | O179 | 131.0 | 148.1 | 64.1 |
| Feb 11 | Arkansas St | A | L 70–103 | +21.0 | L−12.0 | 163.0 | O173 | 94.6 | 139.2 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | Ball State | H | L 68–73 | +4.5 | L−0.5 | 143.5 | U141 | 98.1 | 105.3 | 69.3 |
| Feb 4 | Old Dominion | A | W 85–79 | +14.5 | W+20.5 | 154.0 | O164 | 115.0 | 106.8 | 73.9 |
| Feb 1 | Coastal | H | L 79–83 | +9.0 | W+5.0 | 145.0 | O162 | 118.4 | 124.4 | 66.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeGeorgia StUL Monroe
Efficiency
101.9
103.0
109.9
117.2
68.7
70.2
—
—
Shooting
44.2%
47.8%
42.9%
47.4%
30.6%
32.2%
78.6%
72.7%
37.2%
38.8%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
16.9%
16.4%
15.7%
27.7%
25.1%
33.6%
35.4%
8.6%
10.2%
8.7%
11.7%
Style
42.4%
41.9%
32.1%
37.9%
10.3%
11.4%
50.6%
50.2%
33.0%
23.7%
Roster
2.24
2.31
6'5.7"
6'4.6"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputGeorgia St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Georgia St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
UL Monroe
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Jan 17 | 2025-26 | Georgia St 77 – 57 UL Monroe |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.