CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDon Haskins Center, El Paso, TXCancun Challenge - Campus Game
North Dakota
Efficiency #291
2025-26: 18-17 · 12-7 conf
@
UTEP
Efficiency #279
2025-26: 11-20 · 7-13 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
69.6
win 36%
Projected
73.9
win 64%
No line posted yet.
Model: UTEP −4.3 · total 143.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UTEP 66.9, North Dakota 68.3 → 66.9 possessions
−3.0
UTEP offense vs North Dakota defense
−0.6
North Dakota offense vs UTEP defense
−1.1
Projected total
143.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UTEP offense vs North Dakota defense
−0.6
North Dakota offense vs UTEP defense
+1.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
UTEP by 4.3
4.3
North Dakota side ◂▸ UTEP side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.4 against +4.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UTEP.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Dakota is the faster team (69.2, #134 of 365) and UTEP the slower (66.0, #296). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.5
model
Projected team totals
69.6 / 73.9
North Dakota / UTEP
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#181
North Dakota
66.9#294
UTEP

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUTEP
Where UTEP struggles: ball control
UTEP turns it over on 17.4% of possessions (#230); North Dakota forces turnovers on 19.4% of opponent possessions (#37). Expect about 18.8%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (North Dakota's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect North Dakota at about 39.1% of its shots from three, UTEP about 42.3%.
ClashUTEP
Style clash: ball movement
UTEP creates off the dribble (assists on 48.0% of its baskets); North Dakota allows assists on 58.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
North Dakota has the ball
OffenseUTEP allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #272
51.5% #187
-1.3 pt/100
14.1% #27
18.0% #98
+1.0 pt/100
27.4% #284
32.8% #293
-0.6 pt/100
37.8% #106
42.0% #321
+0.7 pt/100
69.5% #283
—
-0.3 pt/100
North Dakota net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
UTEP has the ball
OffenseNorth Dakota allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #309
56.5% #353
+1.3 pt/100
17.4% #230
19.4% #37
-2.5 pt/100
26.2% #319
32.4% #276
-1.2 pt/100
33.4% #227
43.8% #344
+0.5 pt/100
70.4% #260
—
-0.2 pt/100
UTEP net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
North Dakotaoffense vsUTEPdefense
Share of shots by zone
North Dakota shoots
UTEP allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.7%#30758.8%#17858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.7%#20240.7%#20439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.7%#33442.0%#30238.0%
Three32.7%#24634.0%#18233.7%
UTEPoffense vsNorth Dakotadefense
Share of shots by zone
UTEP shoots
North Dakota allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.3%#8561.7%#29458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.4%#25935.3%#6539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)31.7%#34240.3%#25338.0%
Three33.9%#17837.1%#34533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
North Dakota
+0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#152 of 365
Off reb %
27.4%
#284
Def reb %
67.6%
#276
Turnover %
14.1%
#27
Forced TO %
19.4%
#37
FT rate
37.8%
#106
FT allowed
43.8%
#344
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security+1.8
Forcing turnovers+1.8
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−2.2
UTEP
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#325 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#319
Def reb %
67.2%
#293
Turnover %
17.4%
#230
Forced TO %
18.0%
#98
FT rate
33.4%
#227
FT allowed
42.0%
#321
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed−1.7

North Dakota has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.7 (#152 of 365) to UTEP’s −3.8 (#325).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

North Dakota2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted North Dakota's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Eli KingGSr6'3"35-3531.711.95.22.00.848.2%30.5%4.371.2%22.4%
3Greyson UelmenGFr6'2"35-3427.816.82.82.42.654.9%33.9%3.380.6%33.8%
16Garrett AndersonGSr6'6"32-3129.210.34.31.31.345.7%34.0%4.974.5%23.5%
1Zach KraftGSo6'3"34-2524.68.12.10.50.460.3%39.9%5.480.0%16.3%
13George NatsvlishviliFSo6'10"34-1419.28.04.91.01.152.3%20.0%0.157.0%25.5%
9Anthony Smith IIIGFr6'1"34-017.77.82.12.31.249.8%23.4%1.483.8%26.8%
22Josh JonesCJr6'9"29-2117.92.83.31.01.147.1%0.0%0.240.9%13.2%
0Marley CurtisFFr6'8"30-816.76.03.60.20.742.4%30.7%2.565.6%24.4%
11Reggie ThomasGSr6'1"31-514.04.52.00.80.356.0%39.3%1.864.3%17.7%
23Wylee DelormeGSo6'5"20-08.11.91.10.10.151.6%29.4%0.845.5%14.4%
5Matthew BothunFSo6'9"19-05.21.90.40.20.250.0%33.3%1.362.5%23.2%
4Karson OuseFFr6'7"13-06.70.70.70.00.215.0%12.5%0.675.0%10.9%
33Anthony DopplerGSo6'4"11-15.41.10.50.40.131.3%0.0%0.440.0%17.8%
15Ryan EriksonFSo6'10"9-05.01.41.20.20.430.0%16.7%0.780.0%25.8%
10Micah CurtisFFr6'8"3-112.08.32.30.30.057.9%0.0%0.375.0%30.2%
—Anaiyah FletcherNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Fatima IbrahimNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Jayla OwenNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Jocelyn SchillerNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Kiera PembertonNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Kiyah HurstNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Mataeya MathernNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Mikayla AumerNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Miranda VanderWalNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Nevaeh Ferrara HorneNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Paris BassNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Rakiyah BealNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Skyler VolmerNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Sydney PieknyNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
—Walker DemersNA——0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
North DakotaUTEP
Efficiency
106.2
103.1
112.9
109.2
68.3
66.9
—
—
Shooting
49.4%
48.3%
49.7%
46.5%
32.7%
33.9%
69.5%
70.4%
37.8%
33.4%
Ball control & glass
14.1%
17.4%
19.4%
18.0%
27.4%
26.2%
32.4%
32.8%
7.3%
9.4%
8.3%
8.4%
Style
40.6%
40.3%
43.6%
37.2%
10.3%
13.7%
42.4%
48.0%
34.0%
26.8%
Roster
2.47
3.07
6'4.7"
6'4.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
North Dakota
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted North Dakota's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UTEP
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UTEP's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.