CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Wisconsin
Efficiency #28
2025-26: 24-11 · 16-7 conf
@
Marquette
Efficiency #100
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-14 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
78.5
win 58%
Projected
76.1
win 42%
No line posted yet.
Model: WIS −2.3 · total 154.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Marquette 69.5, Wisconsin 69.2 → 70.4 possessions
+4.6
Marquette offense vs Wisconsin defense
−2.3
Wisconsin offense vs Marquette defense
+4.1
Projected total
154.6
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Marquette offense vs Wisconsin defense
−2.3
Wisconsin offense vs Marquette defense
−4.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Wisconsin by 2.3
2.3
Wisconsin side ◂▸ Marquette side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marquette.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marquette is the faster team (70.1, #91 of 365) and Wisconsin the slower (69.0, #151). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
154.6
model
Projected team totals
78.5 / 76.1
Wisconsin / Marquette
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.2#107
Wisconsin
69.5#81
Marquette
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMarquette
Where Marquette scores: ball control
Marquette turns it over on 16.0% of possessions (#144); Wisconsin forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (#328). Expect about 14.8%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.
ClashWisconsin
Style match: ball movement
Wisconsin assists on 57.3% of its made baskets; Marquette allows assists on 60.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 60.6% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageWisconsin
Where Wisconsin scores: shooting
Wisconsin shoots an effective 54.5% (#52); Marquette allows 50.6% (#131). Expect about 52.8%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Wisconsin) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wisconsin at about 49.6% of its shots from three, Marquette about 42.4%.
ClashWisconsin
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
Wisconsin (#1 in live-ball turnovers) against Marquette (#8 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.7%. Historically Marquette's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
ClashWisconsin
Strength vs strength: turnover rate
Wisconsin (#4 in turnover rate) against Marquette (#38 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 16.1%. Historically Marquette's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).
Wisconsin has the ball
OffenseMarquette allowsvs D1 avg
54.5% #52
50.6% #131
+2.1 pt/100
12.8% #4
19.3% #38
+0.8 pt/100
29.1% #232
34.7% #331
+0.7 pt/100
31.5% #267
32.0% #104
-0.4 pt/100
78.8% #6
—
+0.6 pt/100
Wisconsin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100
Marquette has the ball
OffenseWisconsin allowsvs D1 avg
50.5% #215
51.4% #178
-0.6 pt/100
16.0% #144
14.3% #328
+2.5 pt/100
29.7% #216
28.2% #74
-0.9 pt/100
32.8% #243
29.8% #56
-0.5 pt/100
67.5% #332
—
-0.4 pt/100
Marquette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersWisconsinoffense vsMarquettedefense
Share of shots by zone
Wisconsin shoots
33.3
6.0
9.1
51.6
Marquette allows
39.3
4.7
16.5
39.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.8%#99 | 60.9%#264 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.7%#27 | 36.3%#95 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.6%#126 | 35.5%#88 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.2%#50 | 32.7%#104 | 33.7% |
Marquetteoffense vsWisconsindefense
Share of shots by zone
Marquette shoots
46.1
4.0
7.9
42.0
Wisconsin allows
34.2
7.5
18.0
40.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.0%#238 | 58.9%#187 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.6%#161 | 47.1%#333 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.3%#306 | 41.4%#286 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#297 | 33.4%#151 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersWisconsin
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#108 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#232
Def reb %
71.8%
#74
Turnover %
12.8%
#4
Forced TO %
14.3%
#328
FT rate
31.5%
#267
FT allowed
29.8%
#56
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers−1.7
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Marquette
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#137 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#216
Def reb %
65.3%
#331
Turnover %
16.0%
#144
Forced TO %
19.3%
#38
FT rate
32.8%
#243
FT allowed
32.0%
#104
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.8
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Wisconsin has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#108 of 365) to Marquette’s +1.0 (#137).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Wisconsin2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Nolan Winter | F | Jr | 7'0" | 31-30 | 30.7 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 62.6% | 32.6% | 3.1 | 74.2% | 20.5% | |
| 7 | Andrew Rohde | G | Sr | 6'6" | 34-34 | 26.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 47.8% | 31.8% | 3.9 | 77.8% | 15.0% | |
| 32 | Aleksas Bieliauskas | F | Fr | 6'10" | 35-28 | 20.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 52.8% | 34.6% | 2.3 | 63.3% | 15.4% | |
| 22 | Austin Rapp | F | So | 6'10" | 30-12 | 23.2 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 54.6% | 36.3% | 5.3 | 85.4% | 22.9% | |
| 0 | Braeden Carrington | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 18.0 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 57.5% | 40.1% | 5.1 | 77.2% | 23.9% | |
| 5 | Jack Janicki | G | So | 6'5" | 26-1 | 16.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 42.3% | 27.7% | 1.8 | 60.0% | 11.0% | |
| 23 | Will Garlock | F | Fr | 7'0" | 30-0 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 72.2% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 10.3% | |
| 13 | Hayden Jones | G | Fr | 6'6" | 27-1 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 63.5% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 54.5% | 15.2% | |
| 4 | Zach Kinziger | G | Fr | 6'3" | 14-0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Jack Robison | F | So | 6'6" | 16-0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 93.8% | 75.0% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 23.7% | |
| 18 | Riccardo Greppi | F | So | 6'10" | 14-0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 28.3% | |
| 15 | Isaac Gard | G | Sr | 6'3" | 14-0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 35.1% | |
| 6 | Elijah Gray | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Marquette2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Nigel James Jr. | G | Fr | 6'0" | 32-29 | 29.3 | 16.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 52.0% | 34.7% | 3.8 | 69.2% | 35.0% | |
| 13 | Royce Parham | F | So | 6'8" | 31-20 | 28.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 58.4% | 33.3% | 3.3 | 65.0% | 23.4% | |
| 12 | Ben Gold | F | Sr | 6'11" | 31-26 | 27.3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 49.3% | 26.4% | 4.5 | 65.3% | 17.8% | |
| 10 | Adrien Stevens | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-23 | 26.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 56.6% | 37.5% | 4.5 | 71.0% | 17.4% | |
| 9 | Damarius Owens | F | So | 6'7" | 30-1 | 15.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 47.4% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 71.7% | 19.5% | |
| 18 | Caedin Hamilton | F | So | 6'9" | 32-17 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 42.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 67.5% | 16.9% | |
| 5 | Tre Norman | G | Jr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 44.1% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 64.5% | 20.5% | |
| 35 | Michael Phillips II | F | Fr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46.6% | 37.0% | 1.6 | 35.7% | 19.1% | |
| 22 | Sean Jones | G | Jr | 5'10" | 8-3 | 21.4 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 40.6% | 32.1% | 3.5 | 68.8% | 21.5% | |
| 8 | Joshua Clark | F | So | 7'1" | 22-0 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.7% | — | 0.0 | 23.1% | 16.6% | |
| 40 | Casey O'Malley | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 14.6% | |
| 42 | Braeden Brenn | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 41 | Jonah Lucas | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 19.3% | |
| 21 | Ian Miletic | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Nash Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Sheek Pearson | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Wisconsin2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Nolan Winter | F | Jr | 7'0" | 31-30 | 30.7 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 62.6% | 32.6% | 3.1 | 74.2% | 20.5% | |
| 7 | Andrew Rohde | G | Sr | 6'6" | 34-34 | 26.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 47.8% | 31.8% | 3.9 | 77.8% | 15.0% | |
| 32 | Aleksas Bieliauskas | F | Fr | 6'10" | 35-28 | 20.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 52.8% | 34.6% | 2.3 | 63.3% | 15.4% | |
| 22 | Austin Rapp | F | So | 6'10" | 30-12 | 23.2 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 54.6% | 36.3% | 5.3 | 85.4% | 22.9% | |
| 0 | Braeden Carrington | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 18.0 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 57.5% | 40.1% | 5.1 | 77.2% | 23.9% | |
| 5 | Jack Janicki | G | So | 6'5" | 26-1 | 16.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 42.3% | 27.7% | 1.8 | 60.0% | 11.0% | |
| 23 | Will Garlock | F | Fr | 7'0" | 30-0 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 72.2% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 10.3% | |
| 13 | Hayden Jones | G | Fr | 6'6" | 27-1 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 63.5% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 54.5% | 15.2% | |
| 4 | Zach Kinziger | G | Fr | 6'3" | 14-0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Jack Robison | F | So | 6'6" | 16-0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 93.8% | 75.0% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 23.7% | |
| 18 | Riccardo Greppi | F | So | 6'10" | 14-0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 28.3% | |
| 15 | Isaac Gard | G | Sr | 6'3" | 14-0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 35.1% | |
| 6 | Elijah Gray | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Wisconsin
Against the spread
Season
20-14-1
Home
10-6-1
Road
7-4
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
22-13
Home
10-7
Road
8-3
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +3.1
Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #12High Point | N | L 82–83 | −10.0 | L−11.0 | 161.5 | O165 | 112.3 | 113.7 | 73.0 |
| Mar 14 | #3Michigan | N | L 65–68 | +12.5 | W+9.5 | 161.5 | U133 | 96.2 | 100.7 | 67.5 |
| Mar 13 | #9Illinois | N | W 91–88 OT | +8.0 | W+11.0 | 157.0 | O179 | 121.0 | 117.0 | 75.2 |
| Mar 12 | Washington | N | W 85–82 | −6.5 | L−3.5 | 156.5 | O167 | 128.5 | 124.0 | 66.2 |
| Mar 7 | #15Purdue | A | W 97–93 | +9.5 | W+13.5 | 154.0 | O190 | 147.6 | 141.5 | 65.7 |
| Mar 4 | Maryland | H | W 78–45 | −14.5 | W+18.5 | 153.5 | U123 | 135.0 | 77.9 | 57.8 |
| Feb 28 | Washington | A | W 90–73 | −2.5 | W+14.5 | 153.5 | O163 | 127.7 | 103.6 | 70.5 |
| Feb 25 | Oregon | A | L 71–85 | −5.5 | L−19.5 | 153.0 | O156 | 102.5 | 122.8 | 69.2 |
| Feb 22 | Iowa | H | W 84–71 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 147.0 | O155 | 130.5 | 110.3 | 64.4 |
| Feb 17 | Ohio State | A | L 69–86 | +1.0 | L−16.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 100.3 | 125.0 | 68.8 |
Marquette
Against the spread
Season
11-19-2
Home
6-10-1
Road
5-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +5.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
6-11
Road
6-6
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −8.2
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Xavier | N | L 87–89 | −4.0 | L−6.0 | 157.0 | O176 | 113.7 | 116.3 | 76.6 |
| Mar 7 | #4UConn | H | W 68–62 | +10.0 | W+16.0 | 142.5 | U130 | 101.1 | 92.2 | 67.2 |
| Mar 4 | Providence | A | W 78–56 | +4.5 | W+26.5 | 162.0 | U134 | 109.9 | 78.9 | 71.0 |
| Mar 1 | DePaul | H | L 51–62 | −4.5 | L−15.5 | 139.5 | U113 | 80.6 | 98.0 | 63.2 |
| Feb 24 | Georgetown | A | W 76–60 | +2.5 | W+18.5 | 150.5 | U136 | 116.6 | 92.0 | 65.2 |
| Feb 18 | #17St John's | H | L 70–76 | +8.5 | W+2.5 | 157.0 | U146 | 102.2 | 110.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 14 | Xavier | A | L 88–96 | +2.0 | L−6.0 | 157.5 | O184 | 122.1 | 133.1 | 72.1 |
| Feb 10 | Villanova | A | L 74–77 | +9.5 | W+6.5 | 145.0 | O151 | 105.5 | 109.8 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Butler | H | W 70–55 | −3.5 | W+11.5 | 155.5 | U125 | 104.6 | 82.2 | 66.9 |
| Jan 31 | Seton Hall | A | L 64–69 | +5.5 | W+0.5 | 143.0 | U133 | 102.8 | 110.8 | 62.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWisconsinMarquette
Efficiency
118.0
108.7
105.0
104.8
69.2
69.5
—
—
Shooting
54.5%
50.5%
54.7%
52.7%
36.2%
31.7%
78.8%
67.5%
31.5%
32.8%
Ball control & glass
12.8%
16.0%
14.3%
19.3%
29.1%
29.7%
28.2%
34.7%
6.6%
9.7%
12.5%
10.0%
Style
52.1%
42.2%
36.2%
47.8%
12.9%
19.5%
57.3%
58.1%
28.3%
29.0%
Roster
2.59
2.02
6'8.3"
6'5.9"
68.1%
79.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWisconsin
Returning minutes: 68.1%Returning production: 58.3%
Lost
- John Blackwell 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg · transferred to Duke
- Nick Boyd 32.0 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Elijah Gray no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Marquette
Returning minutes: 79.8%Returning production: 78.7%
Lost
- Chase Ross 32.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zaide Lowery 8.0 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Sheek Pearson no D1 minutes last season
- Nash Walker no D1 minutes last season
- Ian Miletic no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 80% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Dec 6 | 2025-26 | Marquette 76 – 96 Wisconsin |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.