CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSojka Pavilion, Lewisburg, PA

St Thomas

Efficiency #84

2025-26: 24-10 · 13-5 conf

Bucknell

Efficiency #334

2025-26: 10-23 · 7-13 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

77.3

win 72%

Projected

70.5

win 28%

No line posted yet.

Model: STMN −6.7 · total 147.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Bucknell 68.1, St Thomas 69.0 → 68.8 possessions

+1.0

Bucknell offense vs St Thomas defense

−6.1

St Thomas offense vs Bucknell defense

+4.6

Projected total

147.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Bucknell offense vs St Thomas defense

−6.1

St Thomas offense vs Bucknell defense

−4.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

St Thomas by 6.7

6.7

St Thomas side ◂▸ Bucknell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.7 against a projected 147.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bucknell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St Thomas is the faster team (69.7, #104 of 365) and Bucknell the slower (66.9, #247). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.8

model

Projected team totals

77.3 / 70.5

St Thomas / Bucknell

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.0#122

St Thomas

68.1#202

Bucknell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSt Thomas

Where St Thomas scores: shooting

St Thomas shoots an effective 58.9% (#5); Bucknell allows 54.7% (#323). Expect about 57.4%, 6.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +8.8 points per 100 possessions.

GlassSt Thomas

St Thomas gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.4% is worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions against St Thomas's offense.

ClashSt Thomas

Style match: 3-point volume

St Thomas takes 46.3% of its shots from three; Bucknell lets opponents take 45.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.0% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageBucknell

Where Bucknell struggles: shooting

Bucknell shoots an effective 48.5% (#304); St Thomas allows 50.7% (#139). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSt Thomas

Style match: ball movement

St Thomas assists on 56.7% of its made baskets; Bucknell allows assists on 61.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.3% — both habits push the same way.

GlassBucknell

Bucknell gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.2% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against Bucknell's offense.

St Thomas has the ball

OffenseBucknell allowsvs D1 avg

58.9% #5

54.7% #323

+8.8 pt/100

14.3% #36

17.9% #99

+0.8 pt/100

22.6% #353

31.3% #216

-3.1 pt/100

33.8% #220

35.3% #186

-0.1 pt/100

68.7% #305

—

-0.3 pt/100

St Thomas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.1 pts/100

Bucknell has the ball

OffenseSt Thomas allowsvs D1 avg

48.5% #304

50.7% #139

-2.7 pt/100

19.0% #320

17.0% #149

-1.8 pt/100

27.0% #295

26.6% #25

-2.6 pt/100

29.8% #314

30.7% #78

-0.6 pt/100

76.8% #35

—

+0.4 pt/100

Bucknell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

St Thomasoffense vsBucknelldefense

Share of shots by zone

St Thomas shoots

44.3

3.7

5.5

46.5

Bucknell allows

33.5

6.5

13.6

46.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	68.5%#3	60.3%#245	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.6%#44	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#234	40.7%#268	38.0%
Three	36.0%#57	37.0%#344	33.7%

Bucknelloffense vsSt Thomasdefense

Share of shots by zone

Bucknell shoots

39.5

6.2

12.0

42.2

St Thomas allows

39.8

4.7

14.0

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#201	58.4%#158	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	33.8%#41	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.5%#336	37.9%#156	38.0%
Three	30.6%#328	31.7%#52	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

St Thomas

+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#120 of 365

Off reb %

22.6%

#353

Def reb %

73.4%

#25

Turnover %

14.3%

#36

Forced TO %

17.0%

#149

FT rate

33.8%

#220

FT allowed

30.7%

#78

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.5

Defensive rebounding+1.3

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Bucknell

−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#310 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#295

Def reb %

68.7%

#216

Turnover %

19.0%

#320

Forced TO %

17.9%

#99

FT rate

29.8%

#314

FT allowed

35.3%

#186

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−1.5

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed0.0

St Thomas has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#120 of 365) to Bucknell’s −3.4 (#310).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

St Thomas2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Nick Janowski	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	31.5	16.1	5.1	2.1	1.3	57.0%	33.9%	5.4	64.1%	27.6%
4	Nolan Minessale	G	So	6'5"	34-34	31.0	19.8	4.6	4.3	2.2	55.4%	30.6%	4.2	75.0%	34.7%
32	Carter Bjerke	F	Jr	6'9"	34-34	24.9	9.4	3.4	1.2	0.7	67.3%	44.9%	5.2	58.8%	17.9%
34	Ben Oosterbaan	F	So	6'6"	34-34	24.0	7.6	4.2	1.6	0.8	59.5%	36.8%	3.1	69.2%	16.9%
0	Isaiah Johnson-Arigu	F	So	6'7"	33-0	21.4	10.5	4.0	1.1	1.3	60.0%	32.5%	2.4	66.7%	26.2%
11	Austin Herro	G	So	6'3"	27-24	23.9	5.5	4.0	3.5	1.3	60.2%	37.8%	1.4	72.0%	13.8%
12	Ryan Dufault	G	Sr	6'0"	33-9	17.7	5.7	2.3	1.8	0.7	68.9%	33.3%	0.3	66.0%	15.6%
2	Jermaine Coleman	G	So	6'7"	34-0	13.9	4.4	1.9	0.5	0.4	54.7%	34.0%	3.0	64.7%	17.7%
1	Hayden Tibbits	G	So	5'11"	26-1	11.0	3.1	1.0	1.1	0.3	53.9%	34.1%	1.7	52.4%	16.2%
3	Ryan Lafferty	G	So	6'5"	11-0	13.5	1.0	1.9	1.3	1.1	45.8%	20.0%	0.5	0.0%	9.5%
5	Tim Franks	G	Fr	6'5"	16-0	4.0	2.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	66.7%	60.0%	0.6	71.4%	22.6%
10	Tommy Humphries Jr.	G	So	6'5"	9-0	4.2	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0	34.6%	25.0%	0.4	33.3%	20.4%
15	Adam Tauer	G	So	6'3"	12-0	2.8	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	40.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	11.3%
20	Jack Tauer	G	Sr	6'2"	11-0	1.7	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	75.0%	100.0%	0.1	0.0%	9.9%
24	Kyle Counts	F	Fr	6'7"	5-0	3.8	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	83.3%	50.0%	0.4	—	12.3%
13	Luka Momcilovic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bucknell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Achile Spadone	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	34.8	12.4	6.1	1.9	1.9	47.3%	29.7%	4.4	79.2%	23.9%
2	Jayden Williams	G	So	5'10"	33-33	32.6	7.5	2.9	4.0	1.8	39.4%	31.0%	3.5	82.8%	18.7%
22	Amon Dorries	C	Fr	6'11"	33-32	32.5	16.2	4.4	1.4	2.7	57.8%	33.3%	2.5	78.8%	29.2%
3	Aleksander Pachucki	G	So	6'5"	33-10	20.7	5.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	53.9%	35.9%	3.5	69.6%	17.5%
21	Pat Curtin	G	Fr	6'3"	27-19	25.1	12.8	4.3	1.5	1.8	47.8%	26.9%	4.4	80.2%	33.4%
4	Ruot Bijiek	F	Sr	6'9"	12-11	28.8	11.8	5.2	0.8	2.6	44.2%	28.4%	6.2	85.4%	29.2%
1	Jacob Meachem	G	Fr	5'8"	30-0	10.4	1.5	0.5	1.6	1.0	27.4%	25.0%	0.4	77.3%	17.5%
23	Grgur Brcic	C	Jr	6'10"	18-8	16.9	4.3	4.8	0.4	0.7	56.9%	—	0.0	46.2%	16.2%
10	Brandon McCreesh	G	Jr	6'4"	8-8	27.6	7.4	3.1	1.6	0.8	52.9%	37.5%	4.0	62.5%	16.2%
0	Patrick O'Brien	F	Jr	6'8"	21-3	9.8	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.2	39.7%	16.7%	0.9	70.4%	15.1%
5	Josh Fulton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	10.9	2.3	2.4	1.3	1.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.1	85.7%	12.7%
7	Matt Lange	G	So	6'2"	8-0	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.1	150.0%	100.0%	0.1	25.0%	11.0%
32	Kellen Welch	F	So	6'7"	10-0	1.9	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0	28.6%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	23.9%
11	Brady Muller	F	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

St Thomas2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Nick Janowski	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	31.5	16.1	5.1	2.1	1.3	57.0%	33.9%	5.4	64.1%	27.6%
4	Nolan Minessale	G	So	6'5"	34-34	31.0	19.8	4.6	4.3	2.2	55.4%	30.6%	4.2	75.0%	34.7%
32	Carter Bjerke	F	Jr	6'9"	34-34	24.9	9.4	3.4	1.2	0.7	67.3%	44.9%	5.2	58.8%	17.9%
34	Ben Oosterbaan	F	So	6'6"	34-34	24.0	7.6	4.2	1.6	0.8	59.5%	36.8%	3.1	69.2%	16.9%
0	Isaiah Johnson-Arigu	F	So	6'7"	33-0	21.4	10.5	4.0	1.1	1.3	60.0%	32.5%	2.4	66.7%	26.2%
11	Austin Herro	G	So	6'3"	27-24	23.9	5.5	4.0	3.5	1.3	60.2%	37.8%	1.4	72.0%	13.8%
12	Ryan Dufault	G	Sr	6'0"	33-9	17.7	5.7	2.3	1.8	0.7	68.9%	33.3%	0.3	66.0%	15.6%
2	Jermaine Coleman	G	So	6'7"	34-0	13.9	4.4	1.9	0.5	0.4	54.7%	34.0%	3.0	64.7%	17.7%
1	Hayden Tibbits	G	So	5'11"	26-1	11.0	3.1	1.0	1.1	0.3	53.9%	34.1%	1.7	52.4%	16.2%
3	Ryan Lafferty	G	So	6'5"	11-0	13.5	1.0	1.9	1.3	1.1	45.8%	20.0%	0.5	0.0%	9.5%
5	Tim Franks	G	Fr	6'5"	16-0	4.0	2.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	66.7%	60.0%	0.6	71.4%	22.6%
10	Tommy Humphries Jr.	G	So	6'5"	9-0	4.2	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0	34.6%	25.0%	0.4	33.3%	20.4%
15	Adam Tauer	G	So	6'3"	12-0	2.8	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	40.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	11.3%
20	Jack Tauer	G	Sr	6'2"	11-0	1.7	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	75.0%	100.0%	0.1	0.0%	9.9%
24	Kyle Counts	F	Fr	6'7"	5-0	3.8	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	83.3%	50.0%	0.4	—	12.3%
13	Luka Momcilovic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

St Thomas

Against the spread

Season

15-16

Home

6-6

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.5

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-15-1

Home

7-5

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.8

Under 6 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	Seattle UAdjEM #125	A	L 52–67	+2.0	L−13.0	145.5	U119	74.2	95.5	70.1
Mar 7	North DakotaAdjEM #291	N	L 66–67	−11.5	L−12.5	153.5	U133	102.4	104.0	64.4
Mar 5	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	N	W 80–67	−5.0	W+8.0	150.0	U147	124.5	104.3	64.3
Feb 28	OmahaAdjEM #257	H	W 68–53	−11.5	W+3.5	159.5	U121	104.3	81.3	65.2
Feb 26	N Dakota StAdjEM #90	H	W 84–62	−3.0	W+19.0	155.5	U146	128.8	95.1	65.2
Feb 21	DenverAdjEM #243	A	L 80–82	−4.0	L−6.0	168.5	U162	116.8	119.7	68.5
Feb 14	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	A	W 104–64	−13.0	W+27.0	153.5	O168	142.9	87.9	72.8
Feb 12	OmahaAdjEM #257	A	L 94–98	−4.5	L−8.5	156.5	O192	127.1	132.5	74.0
Feb 7	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	H	W 92–75	−15.5	W+1.5	152.0	O167	122.6	99.9	75.1
Feb 4	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	A	W 77–62	+1.0	W+16.0	157.0	U139	123.4	99.3	62.4

Bucknell

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

5-9

Road

7-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.1

Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-20-1

Home

5-8-1

Road

7-10

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total −0.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	NavyAdjEM #104	A	L 69–74	+14.5	W+9.5	132.5	O143	110.1	118.1	62.7
Mar 3	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	W 65–55	−2.0	W+8.0	144.0	U120	97.2	82.2	66.9
Feb 28	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 79–89	+4.5	L−5.5	139.5	O168	116.3	131.1	67.9
Feb 25	ArmyAdjEM #336	A	W 75–73	+3.5	W+5.5	142.5	O148	103.6	100.8	72.4
Feb 22	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	L 63–72	−2.5	L−11.5	141.5	U135	95.7	109.4	65.8
Feb 18	AmericanAdjEM #234	H	L 57–75	+3.0	L−15.0	140.5	U132	88.1	115.9	64.7
Feb 14	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 69–82	+5.5	L−7.5	137.0	O151	105.6	125.5	65.3
Feb 9	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 60–76	+6.5	L−9.5	136.0	P136	86.7	109.9	69.2
Feb 7	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 59–78	+5.0	L−14.0	141.5	U137	80.4	106.3	73.4
Feb 4	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	W 60–59	+8.0	W+9.0	142.0	U119	101.4	99.7	59.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

St ThomasBucknell

Efficiency

111.9

101.2

107.0

111.7

69.0

68.1

—

Shooting

58.9%

48.5%

63.0%

50.4%

36.0%

30.6%

68.7%

76.8%

33.8%

29.8%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

19.0%

17.0%

17.9%

22.6%

27.0%

26.6%

31.3%

7.7%

11.1%

8.3%

11.5%

Style

46.3%

42.7%

46.5%

43.4%

12.6%

9.9%

56.7%

54.0%

32.7%

24.0%

Roster

2.13

2.30

6'4.9"

6'4.5"

—

92.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

St Thomas

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Bucknell

Returning minutes: 92.5%Returning production: 96.3%

Lost

Quin Berger 15.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Miami

Added

Brady Muller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.