CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceJones Convocation Center, Chicago, IL

Illinois St

Efficiency #80

2025-26: 23-13 · 12-9 conf

Chicago St

Efficiency #342

2025-26: 7-25 · 5-14 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

75.2

win 76%

Projected

67.0

win 24%

No line posted yet.

Model: ILST −8.3 · total 142.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Chicago St 67.2, Illinois St 67.8 → 66.7 possessions

−3.6

Chicago St offense vs Illinois St defense

−7.3

Illinois St offense vs Chicago St defense

+4.8

Projected total

142.2

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Chicago St offense vs Illinois St defense

−7.3

Illinois St offense vs Chicago St defense

−4.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Illinois St by 8.3

8.3

Illinois St side ◂▸ Chicago St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 142.1 against a projected 142.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Chicago St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Illinois St is the faster team (67.5, #225 of 365) and Chicago St the slower (65.8, #304). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

142.2

model

Projected team totals

75.2 / 67.0

Illinois St / Chicago St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.8#227

Illinois St

67.2#272

Chicago St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageChicago St

Where Chicago St struggles: shooting

Chicago St shoots an effective 45.3% (#358); Illinois St allows 49.8% (#90). Expect about 47.1%, 4.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.0 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIllinois St

Where Illinois St scores: shooting

Illinois St shoots an effective 53.6% (#77); Chicago St allows 56.7% (#354). Expect about 55.4%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashIllinois St

Style match: 3-point volume

Illinois St takes 43.3% of its shots from three; Chicago St lets opponents take 50.8% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.8% — both habits push the same way.

ClashChicago St

Style match: 3-point volume

Chicago St rarely shoots threes (30.9% of its shots); Illinois St runs teams off the line (34.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.6% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversIllinois St

Illinois St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.9% is worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions against Illinois St's offense.

Pace

Half-court grind

Chicago St averages 65.8 possessions per 40, Illinois St 67.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Illinois St has the ball

OffenseChicago St allowsvs D1 avg

53.6% #77

56.7% #354

+5.9 pt/100

16.9% #194

20.1% #20

-2.7 pt/100

28.0% #268

35.0% #339

+0.3 pt/100

31.6% #266

38.0% #261

+0.0 pt/100

71.2% #234

—

-0.1 pt/100

Illinois St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.4 pts/100

Chicago St has the ball

OffenseIllinois St allowsvs D1 avg

45.3% #358

49.8% #90

-6.0 pt/100

15.6% #113

16.0% #223

+1.4 pt/100

28.3% #255

25.4% #13

-2.4 pt/100

30.0% #311

32.3% #113

-0.5 pt/100

75.0% #84

—

+0.2 pt/100

Chicago St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Illinois Stoffense vsChicago Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Illinois St shoots

33.7

7.4

16.2

42.8

Chicago St allows

37.0

4.0

8.8

50.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.0%#23	64.9%#350	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.8%#306	31.0%#19	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.5%#93	44.1%#341	38.0%
Three	34.9%#126	35.6%#290	33.7%

Chicago Stoffense vsIllinois Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Chicago St shoots

33.6

8.8

26.8

30.7

Illinois St allows

37.2

8.2

19.8

34.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	49.8%#361	60.7%#258	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.0%#195	41.1%#212	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#232	33.7%#46	38.0%
Three	32.1%#275	33.0%#122	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Illinois St

+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#171 of 365

Off reb %

28.0%

#268

Def reb %

74.6%

#13

Turnover %

16.9%

#194

Forced TO %

16.0%

#223

FT rate

31.6%

#266

FT allowed

32.3%

#113

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.8

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−0.5

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Chicago St

−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#232 of 365

Off reb %

28.3%

#255

Def reb %

65.0%

#339

Turnover %

15.6%

#113

Forced TO %

20.1%

#20

FT rate

30.0%

#311

FT allowed

38.0%

#261

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.4

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers+2.3

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Illinois St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#171 of 365) to Chicago St’s −1.0 (#232).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Illinois St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Johnny Kinziger	G	Jr	5'11"	36-34	32.3	11.5	2.5	3.3	2.1	48.6%	33.0%	5.2	77.4%	24.4%
14	Boden Skunberg	G	Sr	6'5"	35-34	27.0	9.6	4.4	1.4	1.2	54.4%	38.8%	4.3	72.2%	21.4%
4	Landon Wolf	G	Sr	6'5"	36-15	23.2	7.6	5.0	0.8	0.8	60.5%	38.5%	3.0	81.8%	17.5%
10	Ty'Reek Coleman	G	Fr	6'2"	35-19	22.7	10.0	2.7	1.8	1.6	58.2%	41.6%	2.5	70.2%	25.6%
35	Chase Walker	F	Jr	6'9"	32-32	22.6	13.7	5.5	2.1	2.3	56.1%	29.0%	1.0	70.1%	35.9%
3	Mason Klabo	G	Fr	6'2"	34-17	16.1	5.5	2.3	1.2	0.5	57.0%	38.8%	2.5	78.1%	19.0%
1	Landon Moore	G	Sr	6'3"	36-0	13.9	3.5	1.3	1.0	0.5	50.9%	32.8%	1.7	50.0%	16.7%
12	Brandon Lieb	F	Sr	7'1"	36-4	12.6	3.1	4.0	0.7	0.8	51.1%	—	0.0	52.6%	17.7%
0	Jack Daugherty	F	So	6'8"	29-2	10.6	3.0	1.5	0.2	0.2	34.8%	24.2%	3.3	76.5%	22.8%
23	Cameron Barnes	F	So	6'10"	13-0	6.9	1.3	1.8	0.5	0.5	70.8%	50.0%	0.2	—	12.4%
13	Ty Blake	G	Jr	6'4"	8-0	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.1	43.8%	33.3%	0.4	—	27.7%
2	Isaac Ericksen	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Nick Allen	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Chicago St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Chicago St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	CJ Ray	F	Sr	6'6"	32-27	31.1	13.5	4.7	1.5	1.3	47.8%	37.2%	3.5	85.2%	28.3%
4	Marcus Tankersley	G	Sr	6'5"	30-29	30.6	13.0	3.1	2.5	2.0	46.5%	23.3%	1.0	65.6%	29.9%
3	Doyel Cockrill III	G	Jr	6'2"	28-9	24.4	11.8	2.6	2.0	1.0	49.4%	36.4%	5.8	83.3%	29.7%
21	Braelon Bush	G	Sr	5'9"	26-9	25.9	8.5	1.9	3.1	1.4	45.6%	27.7%	3.9	91.9%	23.3%
10	Corey Sands	G	Sr	6'4"	30-20	17.4	2.8	1.9	0.6	0.4	39.4%	25.8%	2.1	73.3%	13.1%
8	Stephen Byard	F	Sr	6'8"	22-9	22.6	9.8	4.8	0.8	1.4	48.3%	41.7%	0.5	73.4%	28.7%
9	Malek Robinson	G	Fr	5'11"	32-22	15.4	3.0	1.6	0.9	0.8	36.5%	31.8%	0.7	70.4%	15.8%
22	Dailliss Cox	F	Sr	6'6"	32-21	15.2	3.1	3.2	0.2	0.4	48.4%	33.3%	0.3	69.2%	14.0%
15	Joseph Owens	F	Sr	6'7"	26-2	11.2	2.1	2.2	0.2	0.6	53.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	13.5%
11	Lionel Larvadain III	G	So	6'0"	21-1	11.2	2.8	1.1	0.7	1.0	31.6%	20.0%	0.7	71.4%	24.4%
5	Chauncey Gibson	G	Jr	6'7"	15-4	15.5	4.9	2.3	1.2	1.1	37.8%	26.4%	3.5	42.9%	30.0%
6	Daniel Zatsepin	F	Jr	6'4"	25-2	8.7	0.9	1.4	0.1	0.2	35.2%	50.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.1%
25	Dakari Thomas	G	So	6'1"	19-0	5.0	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.1	42.9%	—	0.0	63.6%	8.3%
20	CJ Delancy	F	Sr	6'9"	6-2	9.2	1.7	1.8	0.3	0.3	44.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	12.4%
1	Deshawn Jean-Charles	G	Sr	6'7"	4-3	8.5	0.8	1.3	0.5	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	7.7%
12	DaJuan Bates	G	Jr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Greg Spate	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Illinois St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Johnny Kinziger	G	Jr	5'11"	36-34	32.3	11.5	2.5	3.3	2.1	48.6%	33.0%	5.2	77.4%	24.4%
14	Boden Skunberg	G	Sr	6'5"	35-34	27.0	9.6	4.4	1.4	1.2	54.4%	38.8%	4.3	72.2%	21.4%
4	Landon Wolf	G	Sr	6'5"	36-15	23.2	7.6	5.0	0.8	0.8	60.5%	38.5%	3.0	81.8%	17.5%
10	Ty'Reek Coleman	G	Fr	6'2"	35-19	22.7	10.0	2.7	1.8	1.6	58.2%	41.6%	2.5	70.2%	25.6%
35	Chase Walker	F	Jr	6'9"	32-32	22.6	13.7	5.5	2.1	2.3	56.1%	29.0%	1.0	70.1%	35.9%
3	Mason Klabo	G	Fr	6'2"	34-17	16.1	5.5	2.3	1.2	0.5	57.0%	38.8%	2.5	78.1%	19.0%
1	Landon Moore	G	Sr	6'3"	36-0	13.9	3.5	1.3	1.0	0.5	50.9%	32.8%	1.7	50.0%	16.7%
12	Brandon Lieb	F	Sr	7'1"	36-4	12.6	3.1	4.0	0.7	0.8	51.1%	—	0.0	52.6%	17.7%
0	Jack Daugherty	F	So	6'8"	29-2	10.6	3.0	1.5	0.2	0.2	34.8%	24.2%	3.3	76.5%	22.8%
23	Cameron Barnes	F	So	6'10"	13-0	6.9	1.3	1.8	0.5	0.5	70.8%	50.0%	0.2	—	12.4%
13	Ty Blake	G	Jr	6'4"	8-0	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.1	43.8%	33.3%	0.4	—	27.7%
2	Isaac Ericksen	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Nick Allen	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Illinois St

Against the spread

Season

20-15

Home

11-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

6-4

avg cover −0.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-20

Home

6-9

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −5.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 2	AuburnAdjEM #41	N	L 66–88	+8.0	L−14.0	148.0	O154	102.7	136.9	64.3
Mar 25	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	W 61–55	+7.0	W+13.0	140.0	U116	97.2	87.6	62.8
Mar 22	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	A	W 78–75	+8.0	W+11.0	152.5	O153	112.3	108.0	69.5
Mar 18	Kent StateAdjEM #157	H	W 79–58	−4.5	W+16.5	154.5	U137	114.3	83.9	69.1
Mar 6	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	N	L 52–74	+2.0	L−20.0	129.5	U126	83.5	118.9	62.3
Mar 1	BelmontAdjEM #54	H	W 81–74	+1.0	W+8.0	151.0	O155	131.1	119.8	61.8
Feb 25	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	A	W 71–69	+5.0	W+7.0	132.0	O140	114.3	111.1	62.1
Feb 21	BradleyAdjEM #117	A	L 60–74	+4.5	L−9.5	144.5	U134	93.5	115.3	64.2
Feb 18	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	W 78–61	−2.5	W+14.5	158.5	U139	120.1	93.9	64.9
Feb 15	UICAdjEM #99	A	L 56–83	−1.0	L−28.0	141.0	U139	76.9	114.0	72.8

Chicago St

Against the spread

Season

14-16-1

Home

6-4

Road

8-12-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.5

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

3-7

Road

12-9

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.1

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 75–79	+11.0	W+7.0	138.0	O154	122.2	128.7	61.4
Feb 28	WagnerAdjEM #285	A	L 61–80	+5.0	L−14.0	135.5	O141	88.6	116.2	68.9
Feb 26	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 56–73	+11.5	L−5.5	140.0	U129	85.8	111.9	65.3
Feb 21	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	H	W 70–51	+3.0	W+22.0	138.5	U121	113.1	82.4	61.9
Feb 19	FDUAdjEM #332	H	L 59–60	+2.0	W+1.0	132.0	U119	111.6	113.5	52.9
Feb 14	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	A	L 63–81	+7.0	L−11.0	146.0	U144	91.5	117.6	68.9
Feb 12	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	W 68–55	+1.5	W+14.5	132.5	U123	121.5	98.3	56.0
Feb 9	Saint Francis Red Wolves	H	W 80–75	−3.0	W+2.0	145.5	O155	112.7	105.7	71.0
Feb 7	New HavenAdjEM #326	A	W 63–57	+5.5	W+11.5	127.5	U120	106.9	96.8	58.9
Feb 5	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 67–78	+9.0	L−2.0	137.0	O145	107.5	125.1	62.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Illinois StChicago St

Efficiency

109.8

102.4

103.6

114.4

67.8

67.2

—

Shooting

53.6%

45.3%

54.6%

44.0%

34.9%

32.1%

71.2%

75.0%

31.6%

30.0%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

15.6%

16.0%

20.1%

28.0%

28.3%

25.4%

35.0%

9.1%

8.4%

9.0%

8.7%

Style

43.3%

30.9%

41.5%

41.8%

9.0%

11.7%

51.3%

50.3%

35.8%

39.8%

Roster

2.94

3.49

6'4.4"

6'3.7"

88.3%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Illinois St

Returning minutes: 88.3%Returning production: 85.9%

Lost

Ty Pence 23.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Akron

Added

Isaac Ericksen no D1 minutes last season
Nick Allen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Chicago St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Chicago St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 6	2025-26	Chicago St 53 – 95 Illinois St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.