Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · Highmark Stadium

Prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 24 (market-implied). The market gives the Buffalo Bills a 57% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Free: prime time

Every angle of Chiefs @ Bills, on one screen.

Chiefs24.0win 43%
Market-implied score
Bills26.5win 57%
SpreadBUF -2.5
Total50.5
Moneyline+124 / -148
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →Prime time · open to everyone

Chiefs vs Bills prediction

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 2.5-point favorite over Kansas City Chiefs, with the game total at 50.5.

Moneylines sit at +124 for Kansas City Chiefs and -148 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 57% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24 for Kansas City Chiefs and 26.5 for Buffalo Bills.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 229 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 76 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 238 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 89 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET, at Highmark Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Chiefs at Bills — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -2.5 (open BUF -2.75)
Total50.5
Moneyline (KC / BUF)+124 / -148
BUF implied win probability57%
Implied team totals (KC — BUF)24.0 — 26.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Chiefs and Bills this season

Games before Week 12. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Kansas City Chiefs6-24-43-525.317.94
Buffalo Bills7-16-25-332.023.44

Chiefs' last 3 games: W 35-12 vs NYJ · L 24-28 @ DEN · L 3-20 @ SEA.

Bills' last 3 games: W 23-6 @ MIN · W 36-10 vs BAL · W 33-30 @ LV.

Player projections

Kansas City Chiefs · 24.0 market-implied pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB) — 229 pass yds · 20 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III (RB) — 76 rush yds · 23 rec yds
Rashee Rice (WR) — 52 rec yds · 4.8 rec
Buffalo Bills · 26.5 market-implied pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 238 pass yds · 32 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 89 rush yds · 16 rec yds
DJ Moore (WR) — 3 rush yds · 47 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Chiefs @ Bills, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Chiefs @ Bills matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule

Chiefs 2026 schedule

Bills 2026 schedule