Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT · Highmark Stadium
The market makes Buffalo Bills a 2.5-point favourite over Kansas City Chiefs, with the game total at 50.5.
Moneylines sit at +124 for Kansas City Chiefs and -148 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 57% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24 for Kansas City Chiefs and 26.5 for Buffalo Bills.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 232 passing yards and 22 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 81 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 231 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 74 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT, at Highmark Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -2.5 |
| Total | 50.5 |
| Moneyline (KC / BUF) | +124 / -148 |
| BUF implied win probability | 57% |
| Implied team totals (KC — BUF) | 24.0 — 26.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.