Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT · Highmark Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 2.5-point favourite over Kansas City Chiefs, with the game total at 50.5.

Moneylines sit at +124 for Kansas City Chiefs and -148 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 57% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24 for Kansas City Chiefs and 26.5 for Buffalo Bills.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 232 passing yards and 22 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 81 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 231 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 74 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT, at Highmark Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Chiefs at Bills — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -2.5
Total50.5
Moneyline (KC / BUF)+124 / -148
BUF implied win probability57%
Implied team totals (KC — BUF)24.0 — 26.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Kansas City Chiefs · 23.8 proj pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB) — 232 pass yds · 22 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III (RB) — 81 rush yds · 33 rec yds
Travis Kelce (TE) — 49 rec yds · 4.9 rec
Buffalo Bills · 26.3 proj pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 231 pass yds · 32 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 74 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Dalton Kincaid (TE) — 50 rec yds · 4.2 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule