New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Miami Dolphins a 1.5-point favourite over New York Jets, with the game total at 40.5.

Moneylines sit at +105 for New York Jets and -125 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 53% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 19.5 for New York Jets and 21 for Miami Dolphins.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New York Jets — Geno Smith (QB) at 207 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, Breece Hall (RB) at 67 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 213 passing yards and 27 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 69 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Hard Rock Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Jets at Dolphins — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIA -1.5
Total40.5
Moneyline (NYJ / MIA)+105 / -125
MIA implied win probability53%
Implied team totals (NYJ — MIA)19.5 — 21.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

New York Jets · 19.5 proj pts
Geno Smith (QB) — 207 pass yds · 10 rush yds
Breece Hall (RB) — 67 rush yds · 23 rec yds
Garrett Wilson (WR) — 58 rec yds · 4.7 rec
Miami Dolphins · 21.0 proj pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 213 pass yds · 27 rush yds
De'Von Achane (RB) — 69 rush yds · 30 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 42 rec yds · 3.3 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule