New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium

Prediction: Dolphins 21, Jets 20 (market-implied). The market gives the Miami Dolphins a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Jets @ Dolphins, on one screen.

Jets19.5win 47%
Market-implied score
Dolphins21.0win 53%
SpreadMIA -1.5
Total40.5
Moneyline+105 / -125
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Jets vs Dolphins prediction

The market makes Miami Dolphins a 1.5-point favorite over New York Jets, with the game total at 40.5.

Moneylines sit at +105 for New York Jets and -125 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 53% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 19.5 for New York Jets and 21 for Miami Dolphins.

The total has moved from 40 to 40.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New York Jets — Geno Smith (QB) at 212 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Breece Hall (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 190 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Ollie Gordon II (RB) at 61 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Hard Rock Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Jets at Dolphins — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIA -1.5
Total40.5 (open 40)
Moneyline (NYJ / MIA)+105 / -125
MIA implied win probability53%
Implied team totals (NYJ — MIA)19.5 — 21.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Jets and Dolphins this season

Games before Week 12. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New York Jets2-73-4-24-520.224.87
Miami Dolphins1-73-4-14-415.825.07

Jets' last 3 games: L 12-35 @ KC · L 33-38 vs LV · L 25-28 vs MIA.

Dolphins' last 3 games: L 9-19 vs DET · L 19-24 vs NE · W 28-25 @ NYJ.

Player projections

New York Jets · 19.5 market-implied pts
Geno Smith (QB) — 212 pass yds · 9 rush yds
Breece Hall (RB) — 55 rush yds · 18 rec yds
Braelon Allen (RB) — 48 rush yds · 12 rec yds
Miami Dolphins · 21.0 market-implied pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 190 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Ollie Gordon II (RB) — 61 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 45 rec yds · 3.5 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Jets @ Dolphins, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule

Jets 2026 schedule

Dolphins 2026 schedule