Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 13 2026

Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High

Prediction: Broncos 26, Dolphins 16 (market-implied). The market gives the Denver Broncos a 79% chance to win. · Updated

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Dolphins16.3win 21%
Market-implied score
Broncos25.8win 79%
SpreadDEN -9.5
Total42
Moneyline+365 / -480
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Dolphins vs Broncos prediction

The market makes Denver Broncos a 9.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 42.

Moneylines sit at +365 for Miami Dolphins and -480 for Denver Broncos, a devigged 79% win probability for Denver Broncos; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.3 for Miami Dolphins and 25.8 for Denver Broncos.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 189 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Ollie Gordon II (RB) at 60 rushing yards and 9 receiving yards; Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 213 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Jonah Coleman (RB) at 48 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Broncos take the extra rest, 9 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Dolphins at Broncos — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDEN -9.5
Total42
Moneyline (MIA / DEN)+365 / -480
DEN implied win probability79%
Implied team totals (MIA — DEN)16.3 — 25.8

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Dolphins and Broncos this season

Games before Week 13. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Miami Dolphins1-73-4-14-415.825.07
Denver Broncos7-27-24-522.020.79

Dolphins' last 3 games: L 9-19 vs DET · L 19-24 vs NE · W 28-25 @ NYJ.

Broncos' last 3 games: W 26-21 @ CAR · W 28-24 vs KC · W 30-16 @ ARI.

Player projections

Miami Dolphins · 16.3 market-implied pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 189 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Ollie Gordon II (RB) — 60 rush yds · 9 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 44 rec yds · 3.5 rec
Denver Broncos · 25.8 market-implied pts
Bo Nix (QB) — 213 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Jonah Coleman (RB) — 48 rush yds · 20 rec yds
J.K. Dobbins (RB) — 43 rush yds · 8 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Dolphins @ Broncos, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 13 games

← Week 12 · Week 14 → · Full 2026 schedule

Dolphins 2026 schedule

Broncos 2026 schedule