Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT · Gillette Stadium
The market makes New England Patriots a 1.5-point favourite over Buffalo Bills, with the game total at 48.5.
Moneylines sit at +102 for Buffalo Bills and -122 for New England Patriots, a devigged 53% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.5 for Buffalo Bills and 25 for New England Patriots.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 226 passing yards and 31 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 69 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 220 passing yards and 30 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 48 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT, at Gillette Stadium, Buffalo Bills take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | NE -1.5 |
| Total | 48.5 |
| Moneyline (BUF / NE) | +102 / -122 |
| NE implied win probability | 53% |
| Implied team totals (BUF — NE) | 23.5 — 25.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.