Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 13 2026

Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

Prediction: Patriots 25, Bills 24 (market-implied). The market gives the New England Patriots a 50% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Bills @ Patriots, on one screen.

Bills24.4win 50%
Market-implied score
Patriots24.6win 50%
SpreadNE -0.25
Total49
Moneyline-110 / -113
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Bills vs Patriots prediction

The market makes New England Patriots a 0.25-point favorite over Buffalo Bills, with the game total at 49.

Moneylines sit at -110 for Buffalo Bills and -113 for New England Patriots, a devigged 50% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24.4 for Buffalo Bills and 24.6 for New England Patriots.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 229 passing yards and 31 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 84 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 236 passing yards and 29 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 46 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium, Buffalo Bills take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bills at Patriots — lines as of Wed, 9/9 · 8:04 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadNE -0.25
Total49
Moneyline (BUF / NE)-110 / -113
NE implied win probability50%
Implied team totals (BUF — NE)24.4 — 24.6

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bills and Patriots this season

Games before Week 13. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Buffalo Bills7-16-25-332.023.410
New England Patriots5-43-5-16-323.423.07

Bills' last 3 games: W 23-6 @ MIN · W 36-10 vs BAL · W 33-30 @ LV.

Patriots' last 3 games: L 27-45 vs GB · W 24-19 @ MIA · L 24-30 @ CHI.

Player projections

Buffalo Bills · 24.4 market-implied pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 229 pass yds · 31 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 84 rush yds · 16 rec yds
DJ Moore (WR) — 3 rush yds · 47 rec yds
New England Patriots · 24.6 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 236 pass yds · 29 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 46 rush yds · 20 rec yds
A.J. Brown (WR) — 56 rec yds · 4.5 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bills @ Patriots, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 13 games

← Week 12 · Week 14 → · Full 2026 schedule

Bills 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule