Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium
The market makes Buffalo Bills a 5.5-point favourite over New England Patriots, with the game total at 49.5.
Moneylines sit at +210 for New England Patriots and -260 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 69% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22 for New England Patriots and 27.5 for Buffalo Bills.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 220 passing yards and 30 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 46 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 228 passing yards and 31 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 70 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Highmark Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -5.5 |
| Total | 49.5 |
| Moneyline (NE / BUF) | +210 / -260 |
| BUF implied win probability | 69% |
| Implied team totals (NE — BUF) | 22.0 — 27.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.