New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills — Final Score & Result, NFL Week 4 2026

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium

The full matchup dashboard

How this game played out, every angle on one screen.

Patriots29market had 21.3
Final
Bills26market had 28.3
SpreadBUF -7
Total49.5
Moneyline+270 / -337
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Game preview

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 7-point favorite over New England Patriots, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at +270 for New England Patriots and -337 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 74% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.3 for New England Patriots and 28.3 for Buffalo Bills.

The spread has moved from BUF -5.5 to BUF -7 since it opened.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 221 passing yards and 30 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 38 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 224 passing yards and 33 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 82 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Highmark Stadium.

Final: New England Patriots won 29-26; New England Patriots covered the spread (BUF -7) and the game went over the 49.5 total.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Final

NE 29 — BUF 26

New England Patriots covered the spread (BUF -7) and the game went over the 49.5 total.

Consensus market (closing lines)

Consensus market for Patriots at Bills — lines as of Sun, 10/4 · 1:01 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -7 (open BUF -5.5)
Total49.5 (open 49.75)
Moneyline (NE / BUF)+270 / -337
BUF implied win probability74%
Implied team totals (NE — BUF)21.3 — 28.3

Devigged cross-book consensus. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Patriots and Bills this season

Games before Week 4. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New England Patriots1-21-1-10-312.017.07
Buffalo Bills3-03-02-133.726.07

Patriots' last 3 games: L 6-35 @ JAX · W 20-3 vs PIT · L 10-13 @ SEA.

Bills' last 3 games: W 24-16 vs LAC · W 41-31 vs DET · W 36-31 @ HOU.

Pre-game injury report

New England Patriots

Inactive: Behren Morton (QB), Christian Barmore (DT).

Buffalo Bills

Inactive: Skyler Bell (WR), Ar'maj Reed-Adams (G), Jalon Kilgore (S), T.J. Sanders (DT).

Gameday inactives as of Sun, 10/4 · 12:07 PM ET.

Player projections

New England Patriots · 21.3 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 221 pass yds · 30 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 38 rush yds · 22 rec yds
TreVeyon Henderson (RB) — 48 rush yds · 10 rec yds
Buffalo Bills · 28.3 market-implied pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 224 pass yds · 33 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 82 rush yds · 18 rec yds
DJ Moore (WR) — 2 rush yds · 49 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Patriots @ Bills, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Patriots @ Bills matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 4 games

← Week 3 · Week 5 → · Full 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule

Bills 2026 schedule