Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · neutral site
The market makes Indianapolis Colts a 4.5-point favourite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 46.5.
Moneylines sit at -225 for Indianapolis Colts and +180 for Washington Commanders, a devigged 34% win probability for Washington Commanders; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 25.5 for Indianapolis Colts and 21 for Washington Commanders.
The spread has moved from -1.5 to 4.5 since it opened and the total has moved from 48.5 to 46.5.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 235 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 82 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 229 passing yards and 37 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) at 56 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT, at the neutral site Neutral.
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| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | IND -4.5 (open -1.5) |
| Total | 46.5 (open 48.5) |
| Moneyline (IND / WAS) | -225 / +180 |
| WAS implied win probability | 34% |
| Implied team totals (IND — WAS) | 25.5 — 21.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.