Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: Bengals 27, Colts 26 (market-implied). The market gives the Cincinnati Bengals a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Bengals @ Colts, on one screen.

Bengals27.0win 53%
Market-implied score
Colts25.5win 47%
SpreadCIN -1.5
Total52.5
Moneyline-122 / +102
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Bengals vs Colts prediction

The market makes Cincinnati Bengals a 1.5-point favorite over Indianapolis Colts, with the game total at 52.5.

Moneylines sit at -122 for Cincinnati Bengals and +102 for Indianapolis Colts, a devigged 47% win probability for Indianapolis Colts; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 27 for Cincinnati Bengals and 25.5 for Indianapolis Colts.

The total has moved from 52 to 52.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow (QB) at 271 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, Ja'Marr Chase (WR) at 91 receiving yards and 7.2 catches; Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 242 passing yards and 15 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 69 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Lucas Oil Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bengals at Colts — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadCIN -1.5 (open CIN -1.25)
Total52.5 (open 52)
Moneyline (CIN / IND)-122 / +102
IND implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (CIN — IND)27.0 — 25.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bengals and Colts this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Cincinnati Bengals6-24-3-15-330.021.97
Indianapolis Colts2-74-55-420.427.77

Bengals' last 3 games: W 34-17 @ ATL · W 43-36 vs TEN · W 35-13 @ BAL.

Colts' last 3 games: L 23-27 vs DAL · L 7-42 @ JAX · L 10-16 @ MIN.

Player projections

Cincinnati Bengals · 27.0 market-implied pts
Joe Burrow (QB) — 271 pass yds · 10 rush yds
Ja'Marr Chase (WR) — 91 rec yds · 7.2 rec
Chase Brown (RB) — 52 rush yds · 28 rec yds
Indianapolis Colts · 25.5 market-implied pts
Daniel Jones (QB) — 242 pass yds · 15 rush yds
Jonathan Taylor (RB) — 69 rush yds · 24 rec yds
Tyler Warren (TE) — 1 rush yds · 54 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bengals @ Colts, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Bengals @ Colts matchup →

Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Bengals 2026 schedule

Colts 2026 schedule