Thursday, November 19, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT · Reliant Stadium (retractable roof)
The market makes Houston Texans a 5.5-point favourite over Indianapolis Colts, with the game total at 45.5.
Moneylines sit at +195 for Indianapolis Colts and -238 for Houston Texans, a devigged 68% win probability for Houston Texans; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20 for Indianapolis Colts and 25.5 for Houston Texans.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 228 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 78 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards; Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 280 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Nico Collins (WR) at 2 rushing yards and 84 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Thursday, November 19, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT, at Reliant Stadium, indoors.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -5.5 |
| Total | 45.5 |
| Moneyline (IND / HOU) | +195 / -238 |
| HOU implied win probability | 68% |
| Implied team totals (IND — HOU) | 20.0 — 25.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.