Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Thursday, November 19, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · NRG Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 17 (market-implied). The market gives the Houston Texans a 79% chance to win. · Updated

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Colts16.8win 21%
Market-implied score
Texans26.8win 79%
SpreadHOU -10
Total43.5
Moneyline+363 / -479
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Colts vs Texans prediction

The market makes Houston Texans a 10-point favorite over Indianapolis Colts, with the game total at 43.5.

Moneylines sit at +363 for Indianapolis Colts and -479 for Houston Texans, a devigged 79% win probability for Houston Texans; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.8 for Indianapolis Colts and 26.8 for Houston Texans.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 229 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 65 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards; Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 238 passing yards and 13 rushing yards, Woody Marks (RB) at 48 rushing yards and 15 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Thursday, November 19, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET, at NRG Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Colts at Texans — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadHOU -10
Total43.5
Moneyline (IND / HOU)+363 / -479
HOU implied win probability79%
Implied team totals (IND — HOU)16.8 — 26.8

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Colts and Texans this season

Games before Week 11. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Indianapolis Colts2-74-55-420.427.74
Houston Texans3-53-55-326.124.04

Colts' last 3 games: L 23-27 vs DAL · L 7-42 @ JAX · L 10-16 @ MIN.

Texans' last 3 games: W 44-22 @ LAC · L 21-27 vs NYG · W 34-31 @ JAX.

Player projections

Indianapolis Colts · 16.8 market-implied pts
Daniel Jones (QB) — 229 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Jonathan Taylor (RB) — 65 rush yds · 22 rec yds
Tyler Warren (TE) — 1 rush yds · 48 rec yds
Houston Texans · 26.8 market-implied pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 238 pass yds · 13 rush yds
Woody Marks (RB) — 48 rush yds · 15 rec yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 1 rush yds · 53 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Colts @ Texans, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

← Week 10 · Week 12 → · Full 2026 schedule

Colts 2026 schedule

Texans 2026 schedule