Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Thursday, November 19, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT · Reliant Stadium (retractable roof)

Game preview

The market makes Houston Texans a 5.5-point favourite over Indianapolis Colts, with the game total at 45.5.

Moneylines sit at +195 for Indianapolis Colts and -238 for Houston Texans, a devigged 68% win probability for Houston Texans; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20 for Indianapolis Colts and 25.5 for Houston Texans.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 228 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 78 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards; Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 280 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Nico Collins (WR) at 2 rushing yards and 84 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Thursday, November 19, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT, at Reliant Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Colts at Texans — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadHOU -5.5
Total45.5
Moneyline (IND / HOU)+195 / -238
HOU implied win probability68%
Implied team totals (IND — HOU)20.0 — 25.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Indianapolis Colts · 20.0 proj pts
Daniel Jones (QB) — 228 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Jonathan Taylor (RB) — 78 rush yds · 21 rec yds
Josh Downs (WR) — 50 rec yds · 4.2 rec
Houston Texans · 25.5 proj pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 280 pass yds · 17 rush yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 2 rush yds · 84 rec yds
David Montgomery (RB) — 53 rush yds · 17 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

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