Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 10 2026

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field

Prediction: Texans 23, Browns 18 (market-implied). The market gives the Houston Texans a 67% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Every angle of Texans @ Browns, on one screen.

Texans22.5win 67%
Market-implied score
Browns17.5win 33%
SpreadHOU -5
Total40
Moneyline-235 / +190
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Texans vs Browns prediction

The market makes Houston Texans a 5-point favorite over Cleveland Browns, with the game total at 40.

Moneylines sit at -235 for Houston Texans and +190 for Cleveland Browns, a devigged 33% win probability for Cleveland Browns; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.5 for Houston Texans and 17.5 for Cleveland Browns.

The spread has moved from HOU -4.25 to HOU -5 since it opened and the total has moved from 39.5 to 40.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 220 passing yards and 13 rushing yards, Woody Marks (RB) at 52 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards; Cleveland Browns — Shedeur Sanders (QB) at 222 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Quinshon Judkins (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Huntington Bank Field.

From the blog: NFL Week 10 Preview: Who's Hot, Who's Fading and Where I'm Leaning.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Texans at Browns — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadHOU -5 (open HOU -4.25)
Total40 (open 39.5)
Moneyline (HOU / CLE)-235 / +190
CLE implied win probability33%
Implied team totals (HOU — CLE)22.5 — 17.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Texans and Browns this season

Games before Week 10. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Houston Texans3-53-55-326.124.07
Cleveland Browns5-46-35-417.921.87

Texans' last 3 games: W 44-22 @ LAC · L 21-27 vs NYG · W 34-31 @ JAX.

Browns' last 3 games: L 22-23 @ NO · L 6-27 @ PIT · W 27-24 @ TEN.

Player projections

Houston Texans · 22.5 market-implied pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 220 pass yds · 13 rush yds
Woody Marks (RB) — 52 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 1 rush yds · 49 rec yds
Cleveland Browns · 17.5 market-implied pts
Shedeur Sanders (QB) — 222 pass yds · 21 rush yds
Quinshon Judkins (RB) — 58 rush yds · 13 rec yds
Denzel Boston (WR) — 53 rec yds · 4.0 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Texans @ Browns, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Texans @ Browns matchup →

Kickoff forecast: 47°F, wind 9 mph from the N, 8% chance of precipitation. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 10 games

← Week 9 · Week 11 → · Full 2026 schedule

Texans 2026 schedule

Browns 2026 schedule