San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 10 2026

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · AT&T Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: 49ers 30, Cowboys 26 (market-implied). The market gives the San Francisco 49ers a 65% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Every angle of 49ers @ Cowboys, on one screen.

49ers29.8win 65%
Market-implied score
Cowboys25.8win 35%
SpreadSF -4
Total55.5
Moneyline-210 / +175
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

49ers vs Cowboys prediction

The market makes San Francisco 49ers a 4-point favorite over Dallas Cowboys, with the game total at 55.5.

Moneylines sit at -210 for San Francisco 49ers and +175 for Dallas Cowboys, a devigged 35% win probability for Dallas Cowboys; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 29.8 for San Francisco 49ers and 25.8 for Dallas Cowboys.

The total has moved from 55 to 55.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects San Francisco 49ers — Brock Purdy (QB) at 266 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey (RB) at 52 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards; Dallas Cowboys — Dak Prescott (QB) at 252 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, CeeDee Lamb (WR) at 1 rushing yards and 86 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET, at AT&T Stadium, indoors.

From the blog: NFL Week 10 Preview: Who's Hot, Who's Fading and Where I'm Leaning.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for 49ers at Cowboys — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:17 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadSF -4
Total55.5 (open 55)
Moneyline (SF / DAL)-210 / +175
DAL implied win probability35%
Implied team totals (SF — DAL)29.8 — 25.8

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

49ers and Cowboys this season

Games before Week 10. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
San Francisco 49ers7-15-34-429.419.57
Dallas Cowboys4-55-46-327.326.27

49ers' last 3 games: W 38-17 vs LV · L 20-29 @ ATL · W 23-17 vs WAS.

Cowboys' last 3 games: W 27-23 @ IND · L 30-33 vs ARI · W 38-21 @ PHI.

Player projections

San Francisco 49ers · 29.8 market-implied pts
Brock Purdy (QB) — 266 pass yds · 21 rush yds
Christian McCaffrey (RB) — 52 rush yds · 35 rec yds
Mike Evans (WR) — 59 rec yds · 4.3 rec
Dallas Cowboys · 25.8 market-implied pts
Dak Prescott (QB) — 252 pass yds · 12 rush yds
CeeDee Lamb (WR) — 1 rush yds · 86 rec yds
Javonte Williams (RB) — 67 rush yds · 14 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides 49ers @ Cowboys, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the 49ers @ Cowboys matchup →

Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 10 games

← Week 9 · Week 11 → · Full 2026 schedule

49ers 2026 schedule

Cowboys 2026 schedule