Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · AT&T Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Jaguars 24 (market-implied). The market gives the Dallas Cowboys a 59% chance to win. · Updated

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Jaguars24.3win 41%
Market-implied score
Cowboys27.3win 59%
SpreadDAL -3
Total51.5
Moneyline+136 / -162
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Jaguars vs Cowboys prediction

The market makes Dallas Cowboys a 3-point favorite over Jacksonville Jaguars, with the game total at 51.5.

Moneylines sit at +136 for Jacksonville Jaguars and -162 for Dallas Cowboys, a devigged 59% win probability for Dallas Cowboys; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24.3 for Jacksonville Jaguars and 27.3 for Dallas Cowboys.

The total has moved from 52 to 51.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence (QB) at 245 passing yards and 15 rushing yards, Bhayshul Tuten (RB) at 62 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards; Dallas Cowboys — Dak Prescott (QB) at 256 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Javonte Williams (RB) at 73 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET, at AT&T Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Jaguars at Cowboys — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDAL -3
Total51.5 (open 52)
Moneyline (JAX / DAL)+136 / -162
DAL implied win probability59%
Implied team totals (JAX — DAL)24.3 — 27.3

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Jaguars and Cowboys this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Jacksonville Jaguars6-25-34-428.615.17
Dallas Cowboys4-55-46-327.326.27

Jaguars' last 3 games: W 33-10 @ BAL · W 42-7 vs IND · L 31-34 vs HOU.

Cowboys' last 3 games: W 27-23 @ IND · L 30-33 vs ARI · W 38-21 @ PHI.

Player projections

Jacksonville Jaguars · 24.3 market-implied pts
Trevor Lawrence (QB) — 245 pass yds · 15 rush yds
Bhayshul Tuten (RB) — 62 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Parker Washington (WR) — 1 rush yds · 59 rec yds
Dallas Cowboys · 27.3 market-implied pts
Dak Prescott (QB) — 256 pass yds · 12 rush yds
Javonte Williams (RB) — 73 rush yds · 14 rec yds
CeeDee Lamb (WR) — 1 rush yds · 86 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Jaguars @ Cowboys, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Jaguars @ Cowboys matchup →

Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Jaguars 2026 schedule

Cowboys 2026 schedule