Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Friday, December 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field

Prediction: Bears 25, Packers 23 (market-implied). The market gives the Chicago Bears a 52% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Every angle of Packers @ Bears, on one screen.

Packers23.0win 48%
Market-implied score
Bears24.5win 52%
SpreadCHI -1.5
Total47.5
Moneyline-101 / -119
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Packers vs Bears prediction

The market makes Chicago Bears a 1.5-point favorite over Green Bay Packers, with the game total at 47.5.

Moneylines sit at -101 for Green Bay Packers and -119 for Chicago Bears, a devigged 52% win probability for Chicago Bears; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23 for Green Bay Packers and 24.5 for Chicago Bears.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Green Bay Packers — Jordan Love (QB) at 257 passing yards and 7 rushing yards, Christian Watson (WR) at 73 receiving yards and 5 catches; Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 251 passing yards and 24 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 56 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Friday, December 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Soldier Field.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Packers at Bears — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadCHI -1.5
Total47.5
Moneyline (GB / CHI)-101 / -119
CHI implied win probability52%
Implied team totals (GB — CHI)23.0 — 24.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Packers and Bears this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Green Bay Packers6-36-2-13-624.021.25
Chicago Bears7-26-35-426.820.46

Packers' last 3 games: W 45-27 @ NE · W 27-19 vs CAR · L 17-20 @ DET.

Bears' last 3 games: W 27-24 vs TB · W 34-17 @ SEA · W 30-24 vs NE.

Player projections

Green Bay Packers · 23.0 market-implied pts
Jordan Love (QB) — 257 pass yds · 7 rush yds
Christian Watson (WR) — 73 rec yds · 5.0 rec
Matthew Golden (WR) — 1 rush yds · 71 rec yds
Chicago Bears · 24.5 market-implied pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 251 pass yds · 24 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 56 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Luther Burden III (WR) — 2 rush yds · 63 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Packers @ Bears, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Packers @ Bears matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Packers 2026 schedule

Bears 2026 schedule