Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT · Lambeau Field
The market makes Green Bay Packers a 4.5-point favourite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 43.
Moneylines sit at +200 for Atlanta Falcons and -235 for Green Bay Packers, a devigged 68% win probability for Green Bay Packers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 19.3 for Atlanta Falcons and 23.8 for Green Bay Packers.
The spread has moved from -6.5 to -4.5 since it opened and the total has moved from 45.5 to 43.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 221 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 78 rushing yards and 36 receiving yards; Green Bay Packers — Jordan Love (QB) at 238 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Christian Watson (WR) at 70 receiving yards and 4.6 catches.
Kickoff is Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 7:15 PM CT, at Lambeau Field.
Final: Atlanta Falcons won 35-14 (away, over).
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
ATS: away. Total: over.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | GB -4.5 (open -6.5) |
| Total | 43 (open 45.5) |
| Moneyline (ATL / GB) | +200 / -235 |
| GB implied win probability | 68% |
| Implied team totals (ATL — GB) | 19.3 — 23.8 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.