Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium
The market makes Jacksonville Jaguars a 2.8-point favourite over New England Patriots, with the game total at 45.8.
Moneylines sit at +130 for New England Patriots and -152 for Jacksonville Jaguars, a devigged 58% win probability for Jacksonville Jaguars; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.5 for New England Patriots and 24.3 for Jacksonville Jaguars.
The total has moved from 45.3 to 45.8.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 221 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, TreVeyon Henderson (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 12 receiving yards; Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence (QB) at 199 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Bhayshul Tuten (RB) at 59 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at EverBank Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | JAX -2.75 (open -2.5) |
| Total | 45.75 (open 45.25) |
| Moneyline (NE / JAX) | +130 / -152 |
| JAX implied win probability | 58% |
| Implied team totals (NE — JAX) | 21.5 — 24.3 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.