Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium

Prediction: Jaguars 25, Giants 20 (market-implied). The market gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 68% chance to win. · Updated

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Jaguars25.0win 68%
Market-implied score
Giants19.5win 32%
SpreadJAX -5.5
Total44.5
Moneyline-247 / +203
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Jaguars vs Giants prediction

The market makes Jacksonville Jaguars a 5.5-point favorite over New York Giants, with the game total at 44.5.

Moneylines sit at -247 for Jacksonville Jaguars and +203 for New York Giants, a devigged 32% win probability for New York Giants; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 25 for Jacksonville Jaguars and 19.5 for New York Giants.

The total has moved from 45.5 to 44.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence (QB) at 232 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Bhayshul Tuten (RB) at 66 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards; New York Giants — J.J. McCarthy (QB) at 243 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Malik Nabers (WR) at 80 receiving yards and 6.9 catches.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at MetLife Stadium, New York Giants take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Jaguars at Giants — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadJAX -5.5
Total44.5 (open 45.5)
Moneyline (JAX / NYG)-247 / +203
NYG implied win probability32%
Implied team totals (JAX — NYG)25.0 — 19.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Jaguars and Giants this season

Games before Week 11. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Jacksonville Jaguars6-25-34-428.615.17
New York Giants5-2-16-25-322.821.510

Jaguars' last 3 games: W 33-10 @ BAL · W 42-7 vs IND · L 31-34 vs HOU.

Giants' last 3 games: W 19-11 @ PHI · W 27-21 @ HOU · L 27-34 vs NO.

Player projections

Jacksonville Jaguars · 25.0 market-implied pts
Trevor Lawrence (QB) — 232 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Bhayshul Tuten (RB) — 66 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Parker Washington (WR) — 1 rush yds · 56 rec yds
New York Giants · 19.5 market-implied pts
J.J. McCarthy (QB) — 243 pass yds · 17 rush yds
Malik Nabers (WR) — 80 rec yds · 6.9 rec
Cam Skattebo (RB) — 61 rush yds · 13 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Jaguars @ Giants, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff forecast: 55°F, wind 12 mph from the SSE, 19% chance of precipitation. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

← Week 10 · Week 12 → · Full 2026 schedule

Jaguars 2026 schedule

Giants 2026 schedule