Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium
The market makes Cincinnati Bengals a 2.5-point favourite over Jacksonville Jaguars, with the game total at 50.
Moneylines sit at +125 for Jacksonville Jaguars and -152 for Cincinnati Bengals, a devigged 58% win probability for Cincinnati Bengals; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.8 for Jacksonville Jaguars and 26.3 for Cincinnati Bengals.
The total has moved from 50.5 to 50.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence (QB) at 231 passing yards and 15 rushing yards, Bhayshul Tuten (RB) at 59 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards; Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow (QB) at 238 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, Chase Brown (RB) at 63 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Paycor Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | CIN -2.5 |
| Total | 50 (open 50.5) |
| Moneyline (JAX / CIN) | +125 / -152 |
| CIN implied win probability | 58% |
| Implied team totals (JAX — CIN) | 23.8 — 26.3 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.