Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 10 2026

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · Paycor Stadium

Prediction: Bengals 27, Steelers 23 (market-implied). The market gives the Cincinnati Bengals a 63% chance to win. · Updated

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Steelers23.0win 37%
Market-implied score
Bengals26.5win 63%
SpreadCIN -3.5
Total49.5
Moneyline+160 / -190
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Steelers vs Bengals prediction

The market makes Cincinnati Bengals a 3.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh Steelers, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at +160 for Pittsburgh Steelers and -190 for Cincinnati Bengals, a devigged 63% win probability for Cincinnati Bengals; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23 for Pittsburgh Steelers and 26.5 for Cincinnati Bengals.

The total has moved from 47.5 to 49.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Pittsburgh Steelers — Aaron Rodgers (QB) at 185 passing yards and 5 rushing yards, Jaylen Warren (RB) at 68 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow (QB) at 265 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, Ja'Marr Chase (WR) at 89 receiving yards and 7.2 catches.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET, at Paycor Stadium, Pittsburgh Steelers take the extra rest, 14 days to 7.

From the blog: NFL Week 10 Preview: Who's Hot, Who's Fading and Where I'm Leaning.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Steelers at Bengals — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadCIN -3.5
Total49.5 (open 47.5)
Moneyline (PIT / CIN)+160 / -190
CIN implied win probability63%
Implied team totals (PIT — CIN)23.0 — 26.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Steelers and Bengals this season

Games before Week 10. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Pittsburgh Steelers6-26-24-422.518.014
Cincinnati Bengals6-24-3-15-330.021.97

Steelers' last 3 games: W 27-6 vs CLE · W 16-10 @ NO · W 26-19 @ TB.

Bengals' last 3 games: W 34-17 @ ATL · W 43-36 vs TEN · W 35-13 @ BAL.

Player projections

Pittsburgh Steelers · 23.0 market-implied pts
Aaron Rodgers (QB) — 185 pass yds · 5 rush yds
Jaylen Warren (RB) — 68 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Rico Dowdle (RB) — 37 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Cincinnati Bengals · 26.5 market-implied pts
Joe Burrow (QB) — 265 pass yds · 10 rush yds
Ja'Marr Chase (WR) — 89 rec yds · 7.2 rec
Chase Brown (RB) — 52 rush yds · 28 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Steelers @ Bengals, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff forecast: 40°F, wind 4 mph from the NE, 2% chance of precipitation. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 10 games

← Week 9 · Week 11 → · Full 2026 schedule

Steelers 2026 schedule

Bengals 2026 schedule