Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 13 2026

Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium

Prediction: Texans 22, Steelers 20 (market-implied). The market gives the Houston Texans a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Texans21.5win 53%
Market-implied score
Steelers20.0win 47%
SpreadHOU -1.5
Total41.5
Moneyline-122 / +102
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Texans vs Steelers prediction

The market makes Houston Texans a 1.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh Steelers, with the game total at 41.5.

Moneylines sit at -122 for Houston Texans and +102 for Pittsburgh Steelers, a devigged 47% win probability for Pittsburgh Steelers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.5 for Houston Texans and 20 for Pittsburgh Steelers.

The total has moved from 40.5 to 41.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 232 passing yards and 13 rushing yards, Woody Marks (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 15 receiving yards; Pittsburgh Steelers — Aaron Rodgers (QB) at 175 passing yards and 5 rushing yards, Jaylen Warren (RB) at 65 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 6, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh Steelers take the extra rest, 9 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Texans at Steelers — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadHOU -1.5 (open HOU -1.25)
Total41.5 (open 40.5)
Moneyline (HOU / PIT)-122 / +102
PIT implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (HOU — PIT)21.5 — 20.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Texans and Steelers this season

Games before Week 13. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Houston Texans3-53-55-326.124.07
Pittsburgh Steelers6-26-24-422.518.09

Texans' last 3 games: W 44-22 @ LAC · L 21-27 vs NYG · W 34-31 @ JAX.

Steelers' last 3 games: W 27-6 vs CLE · W 16-10 @ NO · W 26-19 @ TB.

Player projections

Houston Texans · 21.5 market-implied pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 232 pass yds · 13 rush yds
Woody Marks (RB) — 47 rush yds · 15 rec yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 1 rush yds · 52 rec yds
Pittsburgh Steelers · 20.0 market-implied pts
Aaron Rodgers (QB) — 175 pass yds · 5 rush yds
Jaylen Warren (RB) — 65 rush yds · 19 rec yds
DK Metcalf (WR) — 1 rush yds · 47 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Texans @ Steelers, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 13 games

← Week 12 · Week 14 → · Full 2026 schedule

Texans 2026 schedule

Steelers 2026 schedule