Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 6 2026

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 1.5-point favourite over Pittsburgh Steelers, with the game total at 45.5.

Moneylines sit at +105 for Pittsburgh Steelers and -125 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a devigged 53% win probability for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22 for Pittsburgh Steelers and 23.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Pittsburgh Steelers — Aaron Rodgers (QB) at 189 passing yards and 6 rushing yards, Jaylen Warren (RB) at 45 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards; Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 215 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 60 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay Buccaneers take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Steelers at Buccaneers — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadTB -1.5
Total45.5
Moneyline (PIT / TB)+105 / -125
TB implied win probability53%
Implied team totals (PIT — TB)22.0 — 23.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Pittsburgh Steelers · 22.0 proj pts
Aaron Rodgers (QB) — 189 pass yds · 6 rush yds
Jaylen Warren (RB) — 45 rush yds · 25 rec yds
DK Metcalf (WR) — 63 rec yds · 4.6 rec
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 23.5 proj pts
Baker Mayfield (QB) — 215 pass yds · 19 rush yds
Bucky Irving (RB) — 60 rush yds · 23 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka (WR) — 2 rush yds · 46 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 6 games

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