New York Jets @ New England Patriots — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 6 2026

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium

Game preview

The market makes New England Patriots a 9.5-point favourite over New York Jets, with the game total at 42.5.

Moneylines sit at +340 for New York Jets and -440 for New England Patriots, a devigged 78% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.5 for New York Jets and 26 for New England Patriots.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New York Jets — Geno Smith (QB) at 196 passing yards and 11 rushing yards, Breece Hall (RB) at 59 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 221 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 43 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Gillette Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Jets at Patriots — lines as of Wed, 9/9 · 7:04 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadNE -9.5
Total42.5
Moneyline (NYJ / NE)+340 / -440
NE implied win probability78%
Implied team totals (NYJ — NE)16.5 — 26.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

New York Jets · 16.4 proj pts
Geno Smith (QB) — 196 pass yds · 11 rush yds
Breece Hall (RB) — 59 rush yds · 23 rec yds
Garrett Wilson (WR) — 55 rec yds · 4.9 rec
New England Patriots · 26.1 proj pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 221 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 43 rush yds · 22 rec yds
TreVeyon Henderson (RB) — 42 rush yds · 12 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 6 games

← Week 5 · Week 7 → · Full 2026 schedule