Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium
The market makes New England Patriots a 9.5-point favourite over New York Jets, with the game total at 42.5.
Moneylines sit at +340 for New York Jets and -440 for New England Patriots, a devigged 78% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.5 for New York Jets and 26 for New England Patriots.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New York Jets — Geno Smith (QB) at 196 passing yards and 11 rushing yards, Breece Hall (RB) at 59 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 221 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 43 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Gillette Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | NE -9.5 |
| Total | 42.5 |
| Moneyline (NYJ / NE) | +340 / -440 |
| NE implied win probability | 78% |
| Implied team totals (NYJ — NE) | 16.5 — 26.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.