Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots — Final Score & Result, NFL Week 5 2026

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

The full matchup dashboard

How this game played out, every angle on one screen.

Raiders17market had 21.0
Final
Patriots45market had 24.5
SpreadNE -3.5
Total45.5
Moneyline+155 / -184
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Game preview

The market makes New England Patriots a 3.5-point favorite over Las Vegas Raiders, with the game total at 45.5.

Moneylines sit at +155 for Las Vegas Raiders and -184 for New England Patriots, a devigged 62% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21 for Las Vegas Raiders and 24.5 for New England Patriots.

The total has moved from 44 to 45.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Las Vegas Raiders — Kirk Cousins (QB) at 200 passing yards and 2 rushing yards, Ashton Jeanty (RB) at 59 rushing yards and 27 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 242 passing yards and 30 rushing yards, TreVeyon Henderson (RB) at 54 rushing yards and 12 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium.

Final: New England Patriots won 45-17; New England Patriots covered the spread (NE -3.5) and the game went over the 45.5 total.

From the blog: NFL Week 5 preview: every line, every matchup and where I'm leaning.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Final

LV 17 — NE 45

New England Patriots covered the spread (NE -3.5) and the game went over the 45.5 total.

Consensus market (closing lines)

Consensus market for Raiders at Patriots — lines as of Sun, 10/11 · 1:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadNE -3.5
Total45.5 (open 44)
Moneyline (LV / NE)+155 / -184
NE implied win probability62%
Implied team totals (LV — NE)21.0 — 24.5

Devigged cross-book consensus. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Raiders and Patriots this season

Games before Week 5. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Las Vegas Raiders3-14-02-228.821.07
New England Patriots2-22-1-11-316.319.37

Raiders' last 3 games: L 27-30 vs KC · W 35-27 @ NO · W 26-14 @ LAC.

Patriots' last 3 games: W 29-26 @ BUF · L 6-35 @ JAX · W 20-3 vs PIT.

Pre-game injury report

Las Vegas Raiders

Inactive: Aidan O'Connell (QB), Roman Hemby (RB), Jalen Nailor (WR), Dalton Johnson (S), JJ Pegues (DT), Trey Zuhn III (C).

New England Patriots

Inactive: Carlton Davis III (CB).

Gameday inactives as of Sun, 10/11 · 12:07 PM ET.

Player projections

Las Vegas Raiders · 21.0 market-implied pts
Kirk Cousins (QB) — 200 pass yds · 2 rush yds
Ashton Jeanty (RB) — 59 rush yds · 27 rec yds
Brock Bowers (TE) — 55 rec yds · 6.1 rec
New England Patriots · 24.5 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 242 pass yds · 30 rush yds
TreVeyon Henderson (RB) — 54 rush yds · 12 rec yds
Romeo Doubs (WR) — 62 rec yds · 4.0 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Raiders @ Patriots, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Raiders @ Patriots matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 5 games

← Week 4 · Week 6 → · Full 2026 schedule

Raiders 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule