Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium (indoors)
The market makes Los Angeles Chargers a 2.5-point favourite over Denver Broncos, with the game total at 44.5.
Moneylines sit at +120 for Denver Broncos and -142 for Los Angeles Chargers, a devigged 56% win probability for Los Angeles Chargers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21 for Denver Broncos and 23.5 for Los Angeles Chargers.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 203 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, J.K. Dobbins (RB) at 54 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards; Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert (QB) at 196 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Omarion Hampton (RB) at 71 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 3:05 PM CT, at SoFi Stadium, indoors.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | LAC -2.5 |
| Total | 44.5 |
| Moneyline (DEN / LAC) | +120 / -142 |
| LAC implied win probability | 56% |
| Implied team totals (DEN — LAC) | 21.0 — 23.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.