Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 5 2026

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium (indoors)

Game preview

The market makes Los Angeles Chargers a 2.5-point favourite over Denver Broncos, with the game total at 44.5.

Moneylines sit at +120 for Denver Broncos and -142 for Los Angeles Chargers, a devigged 56% win probability for Los Angeles Chargers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21 for Denver Broncos and 23.5 for Los Angeles Chargers.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 203 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, J.K. Dobbins (RB) at 54 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards; Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert (QB) at 196 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Omarion Hampton (RB) at 71 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 3:05 PM CT, at SoFi Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Broncos at Chargers — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadLAC -2.5
Total44.5
Moneyline (DEN / LAC)+120 / -142
LAC implied win probability56%
Implied team totals (DEN — LAC)21.0 — 23.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Denver Broncos · 21.0 proj pts
Bo Nix (QB) — 203 pass yds · 16 rush yds
J.K. Dobbins (RB) — 54 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Jaylen Waddle (WR) — 52 rec yds · 3.9 rec
Los Angeles Chargers · 23.5 proj pts
Justin Herbert (QB) — 196 pass yds · 20 rush yds
Omarion Hampton (RB) — 71 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Ladd McConkey (WR) — 47 rec yds · 4.0 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 5 games

← Week 4 · Week 6 → · Full 2026 schedule