Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 17 2026

Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · SoFi Stadium (indoors)

Prediction: Chargers 24, Chiefs 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Los Angeles Chargers a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Chiefs @ Chargers, on one screen.

Chiefs22.3win 47%
Market-implied score
Chargers23.8win 53%
SpreadLAC -1.5
Total46
Moneyline+103 / -128
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Chiefs vs Chargers prediction

The market makes Los Angeles Chargers a 1.5-point favorite over Kansas City Chiefs, with the game total at 46.

Moneylines sit at +103 for Kansas City Chiefs and -128 for Los Angeles Chargers, a devigged 53% win probability for Los Angeles Chargers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.3 for Kansas City Chiefs and 23.8 for Los Angeles Chargers.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 229 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 82 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards; Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert (QB) at 219 passing yards and 24 rushing yards, Omarion Hampton (RB) at 56 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at SoFi Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Chiefs at Chargers — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadLAC -1.5
Total46
Moneyline (KC / LAC)+103 / -128
LAC implied win probability53%
Implied team totals (KC — LAC)22.3 — 23.8

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Chiefs and Chargers this season

Games before Week 17. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Kansas City Chiefs6-24-43-525.317.97
Los Angeles Chargers0-80-7-12-615.127.47

Chiefs' last 3 games: W 35-12 vs NYJ · L 24-28 @ DEN · L 3-20 @ SEA.

Chargers' last 3 games: L 22-44 vs HOU · L 9-24 @ LA · L 6-22 @ KC.

Player projections

Kansas City Chiefs · 22.3 market-implied pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB) — 229 pass yds · 19 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III (RB) — 82 rush yds · 21 rec yds
Rashee Rice (WR) — 53 rec yds · 4.6 rec
Los Angeles Chargers · 23.8 market-implied pts
Justin Herbert (QB) — 219 pass yds · 24 rush yds
Omarion Hampton (RB) — 56 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Ladd McConkey (WR) — 41 rec yds · 3.6 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Chiefs @ Chargers, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Chiefs @ Chargers matchup →

Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 17 games

← Week 16 · Week 18 → · Full 2026 schedule

Chiefs 2026 schedule

Chargers 2026 schedule