Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 6-point favourite over Indianapolis Colts, with the game total at 46.
Moneylines sit at +230 for Indianapolis Colts and -285 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 71% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20 for Indianapolis Colts and 26 for Kansas City Chiefs.
The spread has moved from -6.5 to -6 since it opened and the total has moved from 48 to 46.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Indianapolis Colts — Daniel Jones (QB) at 230 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor (RB) at 91 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 221 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 57 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 7:20 PM CT, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Final: Kansas City Chiefs won 33-30 (away, over).
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
ATS: away. Total: over.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | KC -6 (open -6.5) |
| Total | 46 (open 48) |
| Moneyline (IND / KC) | +230 / -285 |
| KC implied win probability | 71% |
| Implied team totals (IND — KC) | 20.0 — 26.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.