Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 2.5-point favourite over Los Angeles Chargers, with the game total at 46.5.
Moneylines sit at +120 for Los Angeles Chargers and -142 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 56% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22 for Los Angeles Chargers and 24.5 for Kansas City Chiefs.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert (QB) at 202 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Omarion Hampton (RB) at 68 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 236 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 83 rushing yards and 27 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City Chiefs take the extra rest, 14 days to 7.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | KC -2.5 |
| Total | 46.5 |
| Moneyline (LAC / KC) | +120 / -142 |
| KC implied win probability | 56% |
| Implied team totals (LAC — KC) | 22.0 — 24.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.