San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 15 2026

Thursday, December 17, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · SoFi Stadium (indoors)

Prediction: Chargers 25, 49ers 23 (market-implied). The market gives the Los Angeles Chargers a 57% chance to win. · Updated

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49ers22.6win 43%
Market-implied score
Chargers25.1win 57%
SpreadLAC -2.5
Total47.75
Moneyline+123 / -150
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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49ers vs Chargers prediction

The market makes Los Angeles Chargers a 2.5-point favorite over San Francisco 49ers, with the game total at 47.75.

Moneylines sit at +123 for San Francisco 49ers and -150 for Los Angeles Chargers, a devigged 57% win probability for Los Angeles Chargers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.6 for San Francisco 49ers and 25.1 for Los Angeles Chargers.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects San Francisco 49ers — Brock Purdy (QB) at 240 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey (RB) at 54 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards; Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert (QB) at 220 passing yards and 23 rushing yards, Omarion Hampton (RB) at 50 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Thursday, December 17, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET, at SoFi Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for 49ers at Chargers — lines as of Thu, 9/10 · 8:01 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadLAC -2.5
Total47.75
Moneyline (SF / LAC)+123 / -150
LAC implied win probability57%
Implied team totals (SF — LAC)22.6 — 25.1

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

49ers and Chargers this season

Games before Week 15. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
San Francisco 49ers7-15-34-429.419.54
Los Angeles Chargers0-80-7-12-615.127.44

49ers' last 3 games: W 38-17 vs LV · L 20-29 @ ATL · W 23-17 vs WAS.

Chargers' last 3 games: L 22-44 vs HOU · L 9-24 @ LA · L 6-22 @ KC.

Player projections

San Francisco 49ers · 22.6 market-implied pts
Brock Purdy (QB) — 240 pass yds · 19 rush yds
Christian McCaffrey (RB) — 54 rush yds · 31 rec yds
Mike Evans (WR) — 54 rec yds · 4.1 rec
Los Angeles Chargers · 25.1 market-implied pts
Justin Herbert (QB) — 220 pass yds · 23 rush yds
Omarion Hampton (RB) — 50 rush yds · 13 rec yds
Ladd McConkey (WR) — 44 rec yds · 3.6 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides 49ers @ Chargers, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 15 games

← Week 14 · Week 16 → · Full 2026 schedule

49ers 2026 schedule

Chargers 2026 schedule