Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 3 2026

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 7.3-point favourite over Los Angeles Chargers, with the game total at 50.

Moneylines sit at +275 for Los Angeles Chargers and -355 for Buffalo Bills, a devigged 75% win probability for Buffalo Bills; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.4 for Los Angeles Chargers and 28.6 for Buffalo Bills.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert (QB) at 206 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Omarion Hampton (RB) at 69 rushing yards and 15 receiving yards; Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 240 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 90 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Highmark Stadium, Buffalo Bills take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Chargers at Bills — lines as of Sat, 9/26 · 2:55 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -7.25 (open -7)
Total50
Moneyline (LAC / BUF)+275 / -355
BUF implied win probability75%
Implied team totals (LAC — BUF)21.4 — 28.6

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Los Angeles Chargers · 21.5 proj pts
Justin Herbert (QB) — 206 pass yds · 21 rush yds
Omarion Hampton (RB) — 69 rush yds · 15 rec yds
Ladd McConkey (WR) — 52 rec yds · 4.3 rec
Buffalo Bills · 28.5 proj pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 240 pass yds · 32 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 90 rush yds · 17 rec yds
Khalil Shakir (WR) — 46 rec yds · 4.2 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 3 games

← Week 2 · Week 4 → · Full 2026 schedule