Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 17 2026

Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium

Prediction: Bills 28, Dolphins 20 (market-implied). The market gives the Buffalo Bills a 76% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Every angle of Bills @ Dolphins, on one screen.

Bills27.5win 76%
Market-implied score
Dolphins20.0win 24%
SpreadBUF -7.5
Total47.5
Moneyline-380 / +300
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Bills vs Dolphins prediction

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 7.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 47.5.

Moneylines sit at -380 for Buffalo Bills and +300 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 24% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 27.5 for Buffalo Bills and 20 for Miami Dolphins.

The total has moved from 48 to 47.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 245 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 90 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 191 passing yards and 29 rushing yards, Ollie Gordon II (RB) at 60 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at Hard Rock Stadium, Buffalo Bills take the extra rest, 9 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bills at Dolphins — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -7.5
Total47.5 (open 48)
Moneyline (BUF / MIA)-380 / +300
MIA implied win probability24%
Implied team totals (BUF — MIA)27.5 — 20.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bills and Dolphins this season

Games before Week 17. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Buffalo Bills7-16-25-332.023.49
Miami Dolphins1-73-4-14-415.825.07

Bills' last 3 games: W 23-6 @ MIN · W 36-10 vs BAL · W 33-30 @ LV.

Dolphins' last 3 games: L 9-19 vs DET · L 19-24 vs NE · W 28-25 @ NYJ.

Player projections

Buffalo Bills · 27.5 market-implied pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 245 pass yds · 32 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 90 rush yds · 16 rec yds
DJ Moore (WR) — 3 rush yds · 50 rec yds
Miami Dolphins · 20.0 market-implied pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 191 pass yds · 29 rush yds
Ollie Gordon II (RB) — 60 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 46 rec yds · 3.6 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bills @ Dolphins, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Bills @ Dolphins matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 17 games

← Week 16 · Week 18 → · Full 2026 schedule

Bills 2026 schedule

Dolphins 2026 schedule