Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium
The market makes Buffalo Bills a 7.5-point favourite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 47.5.
Moneylines sit at -380 for Buffalo Bills and +300 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 24% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 27.5 for Buffalo Bills and 20 for Miami Dolphins.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 240 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 77 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 214 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 76 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT, at Hard Rock Stadium, Buffalo Bills take the extra rest, 9 days to 7.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -7.5 |
| Total | 47.5 |
| Moneyline (BUF / MIA) | -380 / +300 |
| MIA implied win probability | 24% |
| Implied team totals (BUF — MIA) | 27.5 — 20.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.