Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 14 2026

Sunday, December 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium

Prediction: Bears 26, Dolphins 21 (market-implied). The market gives the Chicago Bears a 69% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Bears @ Dolphins, on one screen.

Bears26.0win 69%
Market-implied score
Dolphins20.5win 31%
SpreadCHI -5.5
Total46.5
Moneyline-250 / +205
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Bears vs Dolphins prediction

The market makes Chicago Bears a 5.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 46.5.

Moneylines sit at -250 for Chicago Bears and +205 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 31% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 26 for Chicago Bears and 20.5 for Miami Dolphins.

The spread has moved from CHI -5 to CHI -5.5 since it opened and the total has moved from 46 to 46.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 247 passing yards and 24 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 59 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 202 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Ollie Gordon II (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Hard Rock Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bears at Dolphins — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadCHI -5.5 (open CHI -5)
Total46.5 (open 46)
Moneyline (CHI / MIA)-250 / +205
MIA implied win probability31%
Implied team totals (CHI — MIA)26.0 — 20.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bears and Dolphins this season

Games before Week 14. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Chicago Bears7-26-35-426.820.47
Miami Dolphins1-73-4-14-415.825.07

Bears' last 3 games: W 27-24 vs TB · W 34-17 @ SEA · W 30-24 vs NE.

Dolphins' last 3 games: L 9-19 vs DET · L 19-24 vs NE · W 28-25 @ NYJ.

Player projections

Chicago Bears · 26.0 market-implied pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 247 pass yds · 24 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 59 rush yds · 20 rec yds
Luther Burden III (WR) — 3 rush yds · 61 rec yds
Miami Dolphins · 20.5 market-implied pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 202 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Ollie Gordon II (RB) — 58 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 50 rec yds · 3.5 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bears @ Dolphins, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 14 games

← Week 13 · Week 15 → · Full 2026 schedule

Bears 2026 schedule

Dolphins 2026 schedule