Houston Texans @ Washington Commanders — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 14 2026

Sunday, December 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium

Prediction: Texans 23, Commanders 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Houston Texans a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Texans @ Commanders, on one screen.

Texans23.0win 53%
Market-implied score
Commanders21.5win 47%
SpreadHOU -1.5
Total44.5
Moneyline-122 / +102
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Texans vs Commanders prediction

The market makes Houston Texans a 1.5-point favorite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 44.5.

Moneylines sit at -122 for Houston Texans and +102 for Washington Commanders, a devigged 47% win probability for Washington Commanders; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23 for Houston Texans and 21.5 for Washington Commanders.

The total has moved from 44 to 44.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 247 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Woody Marks (RB) at 51 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards; Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 225 passing yards and 36 rushing yards, Rachaad White (RB) at 44 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 13, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Northwest Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Texans at Commanders — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadHOU -1.5
Total44.5 (open 44)
Moneyline (HOU / WAS)-122 / +102
WAS implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (HOU — WAS)23.0 — 21.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Texans and Commanders this season

Games before Week 14. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Houston Texans3-53-55-326.124.07
Washington Commanders2-5-14-44-421.525.37

Texans' last 3 games: W 44-22 @ LAC · L 21-27 vs NYG · W 34-31 @ JAX.

Commanders' last 3 games: L 13-20 vs LA · W 27-10 vs PHI · L 17-23 @ SF.

Player projections

Houston Texans · 23.0 market-implied pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 247 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Woody Marks (RB) — 51 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 1 rush yds · 56 rec yds
Washington Commanders · 21.5 market-implied pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 225 pass yds · 36 rush yds
Rachaad White (RB) — 44 rush yds · 18 rec yds
Stefon Diggs (WR) — 55 rec yds · 4.7 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Texans @ Commanders, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Texans @ Commanders matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 14 games

← Week 13 · Week 15 → · Full 2026 schedule

Texans 2026 schedule

Commanders 2026 schedule