Houston Texans @ Washington Commanders — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 14 2026

Sunday, December 13, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Houston Texans a 1.5-point favourite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 44.5.

Moneylines sit at -122 for Houston Texans and +102 for Washington Commanders, a devigged 47% win probability for Washington Commanders; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23 for Houston Texans and 21.5 for Washington Commanders.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 272 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Nico Collins (WR) at 2 rushing yards and 84 receiving yards; Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 220 passing yards and 36 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) at 56 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 13, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Northwest Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Texans at Commanders — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadHOU -1.5
Total44.5
Moneyline (HOU / WAS)-122 / +102
WAS implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (HOU — WAS)23.0 — 21.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Houston Texans · 23.0 proj pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 272 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 2 rush yds · 84 rec yds
David Montgomery (RB) — 53 rush yds · 16 rec yds
Washington Commanders · 21.5 proj pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 220 pass yds · 36 rush yds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) — 56 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Terry McLaurin (WR) — 54 rec yds · 3.9 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 14 games

← Week 13 · Week 15 → · Full 2026 schedule