Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium (indoors)
The market makes Buffalo Bills a 1.3-point favourite over Houston Texans, with the game total at 44.5.
Moneylines sit at -117 for Buffalo Bills and -102 for Houston Texans, a devigged 48% win probability for Houston Texans; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.9 for Buffalo Bills and 21.6 for Houston Texans.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 230 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 73 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards; Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 220 passing yards and 15 rushing yards, David Montgomery (RB) at 54 rushing yards and 15 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Reliant Stadium, indoors.
Final: Buffalo Bills won 36-31 (away, over).
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
ATS: away. Total: over.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -1.25 (open +1) |
| Total | 44.5 |
| Moneyline (BUF / HOU) | -117 / -102 |
| HOU implied win probability | 48% |
| Implied team totals (BUF — HOU) | 22.9 — 21.6 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.