Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 18 2026

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: Texans 23, Titans 16 (market-implied). The market gives the Houston Texans a 72% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Titans @ Texans, on one screen.

Titans16.3win 28%
Market-implied score
Texans23.3win 72%
SpreadHOU -7
Total39.5
Moneyline+240 / -298
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Titans vs Texans prediction

The market makes Houston Texans a 7-point favorite over Tennessee Titans, with the game total at 39.5.

Moneylines sit at +240 for Tennessee Titans and -298 for Houston Texans, a devigged 72% win probability for Houston Texans; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.3 for Tennessee Titans and 23.3 for Houston Texans.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Tennessee Titans — Cam Ward (QB) at 198 passing yards and 14 rushing yards, Tony Pollard (RB) at 69 rushing yards and 12 receiving yards; Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 233 passing yards and 13 rushing yards, Woody Marks (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at NRG Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Titans at Texans — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadHOU -7
Total39.5
Moneyline (TEN / HOU)+240 / -298
HOU implied win probability72%
Implied team totals (TEN — HOU)16.3 — 23.3

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Titans and Texans this season

Games before Week 18. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Tennessee Titans1-74-44-418.024.97
Houston Texans3-53-55-326.124.06

Titans' last 3 games: L 36-43 @ CIN · L 24-27 vs CLE · W 26-20 @ IND.

Texans' last 3 games: W 44-22 @ LAC · L 21-27 vs NYG · W 34-31 @ JAX.

Player projections

Tennessee Titans · 16.3 market-implied pts
Cam Ward (QB) — 198 pass yds · 14 rush yds
Tony Pollard (RB) — 69 rush yds · 12 rec yds
Carnell Tate (WR) — 51 rec yds · 4.5 rec
Houston Texans · 23.3 market-implied pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 233 pass yds · 13 rush yds
Woody Marks (RB) — 47 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 1 rush yds · 53 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Titans @ Texans, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Titans @ Texans matchup →

Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 18 games

← Week 17 · Full 2026 schedule

Titans 2026 schedule

Texans 2026 schedule