Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 18 2026

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium

Prediction: Cowboys 26, Commanders 24 (market-implied). The market gives the Dallas Cowboys a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Cowboys @ Commanders, on one screen.

Cowboys25.5win 53%
Market-implied score
Commanders24.0win 47%
SpreadDAL -1.5
Total49.5
Moneyline-122 / +102
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Cowboys vs Commanders prediction

The market makes Dallas Cowboys a 1.5-point favorite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at -122 for Dallas Cowboys and +102 for Washington Commanders, a devigged 47% win probability for Washington Commanders; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 25.5 for Dallas Cowboys and 24 for Washington Commanders.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Dallas Cowboys — Dak Prescott (QB) at 265 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, CeeDee Lamb (WR) at 1 rushing yards and 91 receiving yards; Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 232 passing yards and 37 rushing yards, Rachaad White (RB) at 44 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at Northwest Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Cowboys at Commanders — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDAL -1.5
Total49.5
Moneyline (DAL / WAS)-122 / +102
WAS implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (DAL — WAS)25.5 — 24.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Cowboys and Commanders this season

Games before Week 18. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Dallas Cowboys4-55-46-327.326.27
Washington Commanders2-5-14-44-421.525.37

Cowboys' last 3 games: W 27-23 @ IND · L 30-33 vs ARI · W 38-21 @ PHI.

Commanders' last 3 games: L 13-20 vs LA · W 27-10 vs PHI · L 17-23 @ SF.

Player projections

Dallas Cowboys · 25.5 market-implied pts
Dak Prescott (QB) — 265 pass yds · 12 rush yds
CeeDee Lamb (WR) — 1 rush yds · 91 rec yds
Javonte Williams (RB) — 78 rush yds · 13 rec yds
Washington Commanders · 24.0 market-implied pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 232 pass yds · 37 rush yds
Rachaad White (RB) — 44 rush yds · 18 rec yds
Stefon Diggs (WR) — 57 rec yds · 4.8 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Cowboys @ Commanders, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Cowboys @ Commanders matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 18 games

← Week 17 · Full 2026 schedule

Cowboys 2026 schedule

Commanders 2026 schedule