Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 18 2026

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Dallas Cowboys a 1.5-point favourite over Washington Commanders, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at -122 for Dallas Cowboys and +102 for Washington Commanders, a devigged 47% win probability for Washington Commanders; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 25.5 for Dallas Cowboys and 24 for Washington Commanders.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Dallas Cowboys — Dak Prescott (QB) at 249 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, CeeDee Lamb (WR) at 3 rushing yards and 73 receiving yards; Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels (QB) at 228 passing yards and 38 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT, at Northwest Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Cowboys at Commanders — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadDAL -1.5
Total49.5
Moneyline (DAL / WAS)-122 / +102
WAS implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (DAL — WAS)25.5 — 24.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Dallas Cowboys · 25.5 proj pts
Dak Prescott (QB) — 249 pass yds · 12 rush yds
CeeDee Lamb (WR) — 3 rush yds · 73 rec yds
Javonte Williams (RB) — 56 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Washington Commanders · 24.0 proj pts
Jayden Daniels (QB) — 228 pass yds · 38 rush yds
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) — 58 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Terry McLaurin (WR) — 55 rec yds · 4.0 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 18 games

← Week 17 · Full 2026 schedule