Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium
The market makes New England Patriots a 10.5-point favourite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 42.5.
Moneylines sit at +425 for Miami Dolphins and -575 for New England Patriots, a devigged 82% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16 for Miami Dolphins and 26.5 for New England Patriots.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 206 passing yards and 27 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 70 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 224 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 50 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT, at Gillette Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | NE -10.5 |
| Total | 42.5 |
| Moneyline (MIA / NE) | +425 / -575 |
| NE implied win probability | 82% |
| Implied team totals (MIA — NE) | 16.0 — 26.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.