Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 18 2026

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 16 (market-implied). The market gives the New England Patriots an 82% chance to win. · Updated

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Dolphins16.0win 18%
Market-implied score
Patriots26.5win 82%
SpreadNE -10.5
Total42.5
Moneyline+425 / -575
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Dolphins vs Patriots prediction

The market makes New England Patriots a 10.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 42.5.

Moneylines sit at +425 for Miami Dolphins and -575 for New England Patriots, a devigged 82% win probability for New England Patriots; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16 for Miami Dolphins and 26.5 for New England Patriots.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 184 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Ollie Gordon II (RB) at 58 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards; New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 246 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 49 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Dolphins at Patriots — lines as of Wed, 9/9 · 8:04 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadNE -10.5
Total42.5
Moneyline (MIA / NE)+425 / -575
NE implied win probability82%
Implied team totals (MIA — NE)16.0 — 26.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Dolphins and Patriots this season

Games before Week 18. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Miami Dolphins1-73-4-14-415.825.07
New England Patriots5-43-5-16-323.423.07

Dolphins' last 3 games: L 9-19 vs DET · L 19-24 vs NE · W 28-25 @ NYJ.

Patriots' last 3 games: L 27-45 vs GB · W 24-19 @ MIA · L 24-30 @ CHI.

Player projections

Miami Dolphins · 16.0 market-implied pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 184 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Ollie Gordon II (RB) — 58 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 45 rec yds · 3.5 rec
New England Patriots · 26.5 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 246 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 49 rush yds · 20 rec yds
A.J. Brown (WR) — 58 rec yds · 4.3 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Dolphins @ Patriots, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 18 games

← Week 17 · Full 2026 schedule

Dolphins 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule