New England Patriots @ New York Jets — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium

Game preview

The market makes New England Patriots a 6.5-point favourite over New York Jets, with the game total at 40.5.

Moneylines sit at -270 for New England Patriots and +220 for New York Jets, a devigged 30% win probability for New York Jets; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.5 for New England Patriots and 17 for New York Jets.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 219 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 42 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards; New York Jets — Geno Smith (QB) at 196 passing yards and 11 rushing yards, Breece Hall (RB) at 61 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at MetLife Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Patriots at Jets — lines as of Wed, 9/9 · 7:04 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadNE -6.5
Total40.5
Moneyline (NE / NYJ)-270 / +220
NYJ implied win probability30%
Implied team totals (NE — NYJ)23.5 — 17.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

New England Patriots · 23.9 proj pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 219 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 42 rush yds · 22 rec yds
TreVeyon Henderson (RB) — 41 rush yds · 12 rec yds
New York Jets · 17.6 proj pts
Geno Smith (QB) — 196 pass yds · 11 rush yds
Breece Hall (RB) — 61 rush yds · 23 rec yds
Garrett Wilson (WR) — 54 rec yds · 4.8 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule