New England Patriots @ New York Jets — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium

Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 18 (market-implied). The market gives the New England Patriots a 70% chance to win. · Updated

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Patriots23.9win 70%
Market-implied score
Jets17.6win 30%
SpreadNE -6.25
Total41.5
Moneyline-272 / +215
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Patriots vs Jets prediction

The market makes New England Patriots a 6.25-point favorite over New York Jets, with the game total at 41.5.

Moneylines sit at -272 for New England Patriots and +215 for New York Jets, a devigged 30% win probability for New York Jets; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.9 for New England Patriots and 17.6 for New York Jets.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 235 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards; New York Jets — Geno Smith (QB) at 198 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Breece Hall (RB) at 52 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at MetLife Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Patriots at Jets — lines as of Wed, 9/9 · 8:04 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadNE -6.25
Total41.5
Moneyline (NE / NYJ)-272 / +215
NYJ implied win probability30%
Implied team totals (NE — NYJ)23.9 — 17.6

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Patriots and Jets this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New England Patriots5-43-5-16-323.423.06
New York Jets2-73-4-24-520.224.87

Patriots' last 3 games: L 27-45 vs GB · W 24-19 @ MIA · L 24-30 @ CHI.

Jets' last 3 games: L 12-35 @ KC · L 33-38 vs LV · L 25-28 vs MIA.

Player projections

New England Patriots · 23.9 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 235 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 47 rush yds · 20 rec yds
A.J. Brown (WR) — 55 rec yds · 4.3 rec
New York Jets · 17.6 market-implied pts
Geno Smith (QB) — 198 pass yds · 9 rush yds
Breece Hall (RB) — 52 rush yds · 18 rec yds
Braelon Allen (RB) — 45 rush yds · 12 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Patriots @ Jets, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule

Jets 2026 schedule