New York Giants @ Detroit Lions — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Monday, December 28, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · Ford Field (indoors)

Prediction: Lions 27, Giants 23 (market-implied). The market gives the Detroit Lions a 64% chance to win. · Updated

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Giants22.5win 36%
Market-implied score
Lions27.0win 64%
SpreadDET -4.5
Total49.5
Moneyline+170 / -205
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Giants vs Lions prediction

The market makes Detroit Lions a 4.5-point favorite over New York Giants, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at +170 for New York Giants and -205 for Detroit Lions, a devigged 64% win probability for Detroit Lions; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22.5 for New York Giants and 27 for Detroit Lions.

The spread has moved from DET -5.5 to DET -4.5 since it opened.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New York Giants — J.J. McCarthy (QB) at 264 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Malik Nabers (WR) at 88 receiving yards and 6.9 catches; Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 257 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 105 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Monday, December 28, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET, at Ford Field, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Giants at Lions — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDET -4.5 (open DET -5.5)
Total49.5
Moneyline (NYG / DET)+170 / -205
DET implied win probability64%
Implied team totals (NYG — DET)22.5 — 27.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Giants and Lions this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New York Giants5-2-16-25-322.821.58
Detroit Lions6-23-4-15-327.823.68

Giants' last 3 games: W 19-11 @ PHI · W 27-21 @ HOU · L 27-34 vs NO.

Lions' last 3 games: W 19-9 @ MIA · W 19-15 vs MIN · W 20-17 vs GB.

Player projections

New York Giants · 22.5 market-implied pts
J.J. McCarthy (QB) — 264 pass yds · 17 rush yds
Malik Nabers (WR) — 88 rec yds · 6.9 rec
Cam Skattebo (RB) — 60 rush yds · 15 rec yds
Detroit Lions · 27.0 market-implied pts
Jared Goff (QB) — 257 pass yds · 4 rush yds
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) — 105 rush yds · 31 rec yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) — 1 rush yds · 85 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Giants @ Lions, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Giants 2026 schedule

Lions 2026 schedule