Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field (indoors)

Prediction: Lions 28, Bears 25 (market-implied). The market gives the Detroit Lions a 56% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Bears @ Lions, on one screen.

Bears25.0win 44%
Market-implied score
Lions27.5win 56%
SpreadDET -2.5
Total52.5
Moneyline+120 / -142
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Bears vs Lions prediction

The market makes Detroit Lions a 2.5-point favorite over Chicago Bears, with the game total at 52.5.

Moneylines sit at +120 for Chicago Bears and -142 for Detroit Lions, a devigged 56% win probability for Detroit Lions; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 25 for Chicago Bears and 27.5 for Detroit Lions.

The total has moved from 53.5 to 52.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 268 passing yards and 24 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 54 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards; Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 262 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 96 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Ford Field, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bears at Lions — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDET -2.5
Total52.5 (open 53.5)
Moneyline (CHI / DET)+120 / -142
DET implied win probability56%
Implied team totals (CHI — DET)25.0 — 27.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bears and Lions this season

Games before Week 12. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Chicago Bears7-26-35-426.820.44
Detroit Lions6-23-4-15-327.823.64

Bears' last 3 games: W 27-24 vs TB · W 34-17 @ SEA · W 30-24 vs NE.

Lions' last 3 games: W 19-9 @ MIA · W 19-15 vs MIN · W 20-17 vs GB.

Player projections

Chicago Bears · 25.0 market-implied pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 268 pass yds · 24 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 54 rush yds · 23 rec yds
Luther Burden III (WR) — 2 rush yds · 67 rec yds
Detroit Lions · 27.5 market-implied pts
Jared Goff (QB) — 262 pass yds · 4 rush yds
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) — 96 rush yds · 31 rec yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) — 1 rush yds · 89 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bears @ Lions, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Bears @ Lions matchup →

Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule

Bears 2026 schedule

Lions 2026 schedule