Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium (indoors)

Game preview

The market makes Minnesota Vikings a 4.5-point favourite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 43.5.

Moneylines sit at +180 for Atlanta Falcons and -218 for Minnesota Vikings, a devigged 66% win probability for Minnesota Vikings; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 19.5 for Atlanta Falcons and 24 for Minnesota Vikings.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 215 passing yards and 8 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 84 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards; Minnesota Vikings — Carson Wentz (QB) at 196 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Aaron Jones (RB) at 72 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at U.S. Bank Stadium, indoors, Atlanta Falcons take the extra rest, 14 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Falcons at Vikings — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIN -4.5
Total43.5
Moneyline (ATL / MIN)+180 / -218
MIN implied win probability66%
Implied team totals (ATL — MIN)19.5 — 24.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Atlanta Falcons · 19.5 proj pts
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) — 215 pass yds · 8 rush yds
Bijan Robinson (RB) — 84 rush yds · 31 rec yds
Drake London (WR) — 2 rush yds · 61 rec yds
Minnesota Vikings · 24.0 proj pts
Carson Wentz (QB) — 196 pass yds · 12 rush yds
Aaron Jones (RB) — 72 rush yds · 11 rec yds
Justin Jefferson (WR) — 61 rec yds · 4.6 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule