Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 12 2026

Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium (indoors)

Prediction: Vikings 24, Falcons 20 (market-implied). The market gives the Minnesota Vikings a 66% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Falcons @ Vikings, on one screen.

Falcons19.5win 34%
Market-implied score
Vikings24.0win 66%
SpreadMIN -4.5
Total43.5
Moneyline+180 / -218
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Falcons vs Vikings prediction

The market makes Minnesota Vikings a 4.5-point favorite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 43.5.

Moneylines sit at +180 for Atlanta Falcons and -218 for Minnesota Vikings, a devigged 66% win probability for Minnesota Vikings; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 19.5 for Atlanta Falcons and 24 for Minnesota Vikings.

The spread has moved from MIN -4 to MIN -4.5 since it opened.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 206 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 88 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards; Minnesota Vikings — Carson Wentz (QB) at 200 passing yards and 11 rushing yards, Justin Jefferson (WR) at 1 rushing yards and 62 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 29, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at U.S. Bank Stadium, indoors, Atlanta Falcons take the extra rest, 14 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Falcons at Vikings — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIN -4.5 (open MIN -4)
Total43.5
Moneyline (ATL / MIN)+180 / -218
MIN implied win probability66%
Implied team totals (ATL — MIN)19.5 — 24.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Falcons and Vikings this season

Games before Week 12. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Atlanta Falcons3-63-64-520.924.814
Minnesota Vikings6-24-41-718.314.57

Falcons' last 3 games: L 17-34 vs CIN · L 0-16 @ TB · W 29-20 vs SF.

Vikings' last 3 games: L 6-23 vs BUF · L 15-19 @ DET · W 16-10 vs IND.

Player projections

Atlanta Falcons · 19.5 market-implied pts
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) — 206 pass yds · 9 rush yds
Bijan Robinson (RB) — 88 rush yds · 25 rec yds
Drake London (WR) — 1 rush yds · 64 rec yds
Minnesota Vikings · 24.0 market-implied pts
Carson Wentz (QB) — 200 pass yds · 11 rush yds
Justin Jefferson (WR) — 1 rush yds · 62 rec yds
Jordan Mason (RB) — 53 rush yds · 7 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Falcons @ Vikings, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Falcons @ Vikings matchup →

Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 12 games

← Week 11 · Week 13 → · Full 2026 schedule

Falcons 2026 schedule

Vikings 2026 schedule