Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 3 2026

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 3:05 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Minnesota Vikings a 1.5-point favourite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the game total at 42.5.

Moneylines sit at -124 for Minnesota Vikings and +105 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a devigged 47% win probability for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22 for Minnesota Vikings and 20.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The spread has moved from 2 to 1.5 since it opened and the total has moved from 43.5 to 42.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Minnesota Vikings — Kyler Murray (QB) at 188 passing yards and 23 rushing yards, Aaron Jones (RB) at 71 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards; Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 219 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 61 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 3:05 PM CT, at Raymond James Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Vikings at Buccaneers — lines as of Sat, 9/26 · 2:55 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIN -1.5 (open +2)
Total42.5 (open 43.5)
Moneyline (MIN / TB)-124 / +105
TB implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (MIN — TB)22.0 — 20.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Minnesota Vikings · 22.0 proj pts
Kyler Murray (QB) — 188 pass yds · 23 rush yds
Aaron Jones (RB) — 71 rush yds · 13 rec yds
Justin Jefferson (WR) — 58 rec yds · 4.4 rec
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 20.5 proj pts
Baker Mayfield (QB) — 219 pass yds · 20 rush yds
Bucky Irving (RB) — 61 rush yds · 22 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka (WR) — 2 rush yds · 48 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 3 games

← Week 2 · Week 4 → · Full 2026 schedule