Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 18 2026

Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium (indoors)

Prediction: Vikings 23, Bears 21 (market-implied). The market gives the Minnesota Vikings a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Bears @ Vikings, on one screen.

Bears21.0win 47%
Market-implied score
Vikings22.5win 53%
SpreadMIN -1.5
Total43.5
Moneyline+105 / -125
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Bears vs Vikings prediction

The market makes Minnesota Vikings a 1.5-point favorite over Chicago Bears, with the game total at 43.5.

Moneylines sit at +105 for Chicago Bears and -125 for Minnesota Vikings, a devigged 53% win probability for Minnesota Vikings; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21 for Chicago Bears and 22.5 for Minnesota Vikings.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 221 passing yards and 23 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 56 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards; Minnesota Vikings — Carson Wentz (QB) at 204 passing yards and 11 rushing yards, Justin Jefferson (WR) at 1 rushing yards and 64 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, January 10, 2027 · 1:00 PM ET, at U.S. Bank Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bears at Vikings — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIN -1.5
Total43.5
Moneyline (CHI / MIN)+105 / -125
MIN implied win probability53%
Implied team totals (CHI — MIN)21.0 — 22.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bears and Vikings this season

Games before Week 18. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Chicago Bears7-26-35-426.820.47
Minnesota Vikings6-24-41-718.314.57

Bears' last 3 games: W 27-24 vs TB · W 34-17 @ SEA · W 30-24 vs NE.

Vikings' last 3 games: L 6-23 vs BUF · L 15-19 @ DET · W 16-10 vs IND.

Player projections

Chicago Bears · 21.0 market-implied pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 221 pass yds · 23 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 56 rush yds · 17 rec yds
Luther Burden III (WR) — 3 rush yds · 56 rec yds
Minnesota Vikings · 22.5 market-implied pts
Carson Wentz (QB) — 204 pass yds · 11 rush yds
Justin Jefferson (WR) — 1 rush yds · 64 rec yds
Jordan Mason (RB) — 49 rush yds · 8 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bears @ Vikings, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Bears @ Vikings matchup →

Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 18 games

← Week 17 · Full 2026 schedule

Bears 2026 schedule

Vikings 2026 schedule